New algorithm to show the next bus stop

I am developing a mobile app. It allows me to pick my bus service, e.g. 163 toward Toa Payoh and to pick the alighting point, e.g. stop 38, Opposite Thomson Plaza.

The app tells me which stop I am at now, e,g. Stop 23 ST Electronics. It updates the Stop No as the bus approachs each stop. When it reaches my destination, an alarm will sound.

I have also found an algorithm to tell me the next bus stop when I pass 10 meters from the current bus stop.

My method has the advantage of telling the commuter the number of stops before arriving at the destination.

It will be useful for a commuter who is visiting an unfamiliar place, or when he cannot see the landmarks at night, or on rainy day, or in a crowded bus.

The alarm is also useful as some commuters are too engrossed with their mobile device that they overlook to get off the bus at the destination.

The current algorithm used in the fare meter will only show the next bus stop when it approaches that bus stop. This change usually comes too late.

Some buses already have a digital display showing the next stop. However, it uses the same algorithm as the fare meter and the change of the next stop usually comes rather late.

Furthermore, this display shows only the description of the bus stop but not the sequence number. It is not as useful as the display on my mobile app, which shows both the sequence number and the description of the bus stop.

I am using GPS to detect the next bus stop. Someone said that it will drain my battery. I do not think it is a problem. I have been keeping my GPS "on" all the time anyway.

Another person told me that the bus does not use GPS to find the next bus stop. It uses a beacon at each bus stop that can be received by the bus to identify that stop. I wonder if that is a fact or just a speculation.

Anyway, when my mobile app is ready, I will be able to test the proof of concept.

Tan Kin Lian

Integrity and non-corruptibility

Is Singapore maintaining a high standard of integrity and non-corruptibility?

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Vigilance against corruption

I am really worried about the billions of dollars that are being spent on our public works and military hardware.

In many countries, these large expenditures, usually done in secrecy, have given oopporutnities for corruption, bribery and kickbacks.

During the time of Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, we know that the CPIB is active in investigating and prosecuting public officers who acted corruptly. LKY himself would not tolerate any corrupt practice, even among his ministers, and for small amounts.

But I worry that we do not have the same standard of vigilence and integrity today.

I want to share this story.

The chief of public works of country X met the minister of public works of country Y at a 4 weeks management training program. They become good friends.

A year later, the minister visited the chief in country X. He was surprised to be hosted in the luxurious home of the chief as his official salary is quite modest. The minister asked - how are you able to afford this expensive home?

The chief said - can you see the highway a few miles in that distance? Well, 10% of the cost of the highway pays for this luxurious home.

The following year, he visited the minister in country Y. The chief was surprised that the minister had an even more grandious palace.

He asked the minister - how are you able to afford his grandious palace?

The minister said - can you see the highway in the distance? The chief replied - I can't see any highway. The minister said - well, the money for the highway goes to build this grandious palace.

Tan Kin Lian

A straight bridge for the Woodlands-JB Rail Link

The original design of the JB-Woodlands Rail Link specifies a height of 30 meters for ships to pass under. This require a crooked bridget to get the length for this clearance.

The Johor Sultan objected to the crooked design.

The new design requires a straight bridge. But the clearance is only 25 meter. The sultan approved this design. Click here.

I agree with the sultan. The straight bridge looks better and is cheaper to construct.

The question is - why do we need a 30 meter clearance. The Tuas 2nd Link has a clearance of only 25 meter. If the Woodlands JB link is increased to 30 meter, it would required the Tuas 2nd Link to be raised to 30 meter. This would be very expensive and disruptive.

Do we really need to raise the clearance to 30 meter? Are we expected bigger ships go go under the bridge? How much is the additional cost and how much is being borne by Singapore?

We are not getting answers to important questions involved billions of dollars. It is very sad for Singapore to have our government run the country in this non-transparent and non-accountable manner.

Tan Kin Lian

Steps to popularise cashless payments

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the best way to promote cashless payments?

42% of the people who voted wanted to use Ez Link and to encourage hawkers to install readers.
31% wanted to introduce a clearing house for wallet payments on different platforms to be processed.
25% wanted a the government to introduce a new platform as a common standard.

See the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Carry out full maintenace of NS and EW line by sections

I have a solution on how to fix the problems in the NS and EW line.

This is what I would do, if I were the transport minister or CEO of SMRT.

I would close one section of the line acomprising of about 4 km at a time. This will comprise of 3 stations, say A, B and C.

I would provide bus service to take passengers from A to B to C and from C to B to A.

This will allow the 4 km of rail to be inspected, checked and tested. As the section is closed, the technical staff can check the rail, sensors, cables and other devices thoroughly and replace the faulty items. After that, the entire system for this stretch is fully tested.

I would not move to the next section, comparising of three stations, say C, D and E.

I expect that each section will take 1 week to complete.

There are a total of 51 stations in both line. This will take 26 weeks or half a year to complete.

If it requires 2 weeks to carry out the work for 1 section, it would take 1 year to complete.

It may be inconvenient for the passengers to transfer from the train to a bus and to transfer back to the train, after bypassing the section under maintenace. But this inconvenience can be tolerated.

Some passengers may change to other lines and connections, instead of taking the shuttle bus. It is an option for them.

I expect 100 buses to be sufficient to provide the shuttle service to carry passengers to bypass the section under maintenance.

I think that this method may work. If I were the transport minister or the CEO of SMRT, I will try this approach.

Do you agree with me?

Tan Kin Lian

A different approach to award work to contractors

For the past two decades, I have taken a view that the competitive tender system is a bad system. The principal may get a lower price but the contractor may cut corners and provide inferior material and workmanship to keep a profit.

It is difficult for the principal to monitor the work closely. It also leads to conflicts, and request by the contractor for additional payment due to variation orders. It is a game. One party tries to "cheat" the other party.

What is an alternative system?

This is my suggestion. The principal will ask two quantity surveyors to estimate the cost of the project. If the price differs, in the case of two estimates, the principal will ask the quantity surveyors to explain the difference, and will select the more realistic estimate.

In asking for tender, the principal will disclose the estimate made by the quantity surveyor. This will help the bidders to prepare their bids.

When the bids are received, the principal should select a bid that is close to the estimate and award the contract to the bidder that has the best resources including the quality of the manpower and their availability.

The principal should give preference to the contractor that has fewer projects on hand, as they can focus on the new project.

The aim of this system is to give a fair price to the contractor for the project, so that they can focus on doing a good job, rather than worry about cutting cost. If they have a good profit margin, they will not have to cut corners on the quality of materials or workmanship.

If a contractor cuts corners to make a bigger profit, they should be barred from future projects.

This system of awarding a fair price will encourage contractors to build up a pool of permanent workers who can develop their skills. They are assured of a continuing flow of work.

I suggest that the public sector adopt this new system of awarding projects based on "a fair price". The private sector will be encouraged to follow this practice.

Suppose the fair price for a contract is $200 million. Under the current competitive system, a contractor may bid $180 million to get the job. They may look for ways to reduce their cost, such as using cheaper materials (i.e. lower quality) or cheaper workers (i.e lower skill). This will have serious impact in the years ahead.

Alternatively, the contractor will find ways to ask for additional payments through variation orders to get the additional $20 million. This can lead to disputes. The principal may end up paying the same cost.

The most important benefit of a "fair price" system is that it allows contractors to build up a pool of permanent workers who can develop their skills over time. They will be confident that they have a job that for many years. The contractor will also be confident of providing this assurance to their workers.


The system of getting the principal to disclose its estimate also helps the contractors to prepare their bids at a lower cost. They do not need to carry out the entire work as they can use the principal's estimate as the basis to make adjustments to their final bid. It will remove most of the uncertainty and allow the contractor to focus on where they can add their value.

We have seen the harm that comes from our competitive tender system, as reflected by the continuing problems in our MRT system and also the poor quality of many new property projects.

It is time to consider a better system to award projects to contractors, based on a "fair price" system.

Tan Kin Lian

Fix problems in NS and EW lines

What is the best way to fix the problems with the NS and EW lines

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Minister for transport

Should Khaw BW continue as minister of transport?

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www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

CEO of SMRT

With so much problem occuring in SMRT, I posed this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should Desmond Kuek continue as CEO of SMRT?

Should be be fired, allowed to resign, volunteer to take a pay cut or be excused?

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=367

National Electronic Health Record

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should private clinics be required by law to submit patient records to a national database?

36% of those who voted said yes, as it would create a complete patient record and would be useful for the treatment of patients.

The remaining 64% said no, based on three reasons.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=366

Make better use of email

I took a full bood test last week. My doctor scanned the medical report and sent them to me by email.

We know that email is not secure and that a medical report is private and sensitive, right?

Was it correct for my doctor to send this sensitive personal information by email, which is not secure?

Well, I thank my doctor for using this form of communication. If any hacker wants to hack my email and read my medical report, they are welcomed to it.

If they are caught, I will lodge a police report to charge them for invasion of privacy. If they are not caught, it does not bother me.

For those who are interested, the report showed that I have high cholesterol but I am otherwise in good health. But my HDL reading is good and the ratio of total/HDL is acceptable.

Still I will take the doctor's advice and watch my diet. Maybe, I will take some medication to reduce the cholesterol level as well.

Isn't it boring? There must be a few hundred thousand people in Singapore with high cholesterol, right?

I hope that the Singapore government will address their paranoia about the "insecurity of email" and encourage the use of email for communication, especially if the receiver has agreed to accept the risk of the email being hacked.

I would like all my bills and routine communication to reach me by email. I am tired of getting physical mail, which I often do not read.

Tan Kin Lian

Weakness of the tender system

I met an engineer who has been in the contracting business for two decades. He also provide cable testing services.

I asked him about his view on the frequent MRT breakdowns and if his business involve the testing of cables in the MRT system.

He was very convinced in his reply, He said: The problem is with our tender system. We get various contractors to tender different parts of the MRT system. All the systems need to interact with each other.

Under the tender system, the award is usually given to the lowest tender. Although the government has introduced the two envelop system, it does not work.

He explained that the two envelop system requires the award committee to evaluate the tenders based on quality before they consider the price. He said that in practice, it is difficult for the award committee to award the work to a bidder quoting a higher price.

The winning contractor may be squeezed as their bid has a low margin. They may resort to buying lower quality materials or using unskilled workers. This has led to quality issues.

I agree with his view. Another engineer, who worked in the marine industry, said that it is important to have a quality audit plan that is carried out rigorously. He suspected that this was not done with SMRT.

For many years, I have seen the weakness of the tender system. I believe that there is a better way to award the project to the contractor that does not involve competitive tendering. I will write about it in a separate article.

We are now seeing the outcome of the weakness of the tender system. The cost of this bad practice is much higher than most people had anticipated.

Tan Kin Lian

Train accident at Joo Koon station

I ask this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is your view about the train accident in Joo Koon MRT station?

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www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Revert to the old signal system?

It seems that the new signal system is giving a lot of trouble. Should SMRT revert back to the old signal system?

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www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Can we revert to the old signal system?

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems to be quite clear now that it was a bad decision to introduce a new signalling system.

It seemed to be an important contributor to the frequent breakdowns of the trains.

Although we have other contributors, such as train fault and track fault, it seems that the signal fault is the biggest contributor.

There is nothing much that we do to prevent train fault and track fault, which most probably arise due to age.

But the signal fault was caused by a decision to change to a new signal system.

The old signal system served us for three decades. Why change the signal system?

My guess is that they want to introduce driverless operations, similar to the new lines. This may seemed a good idea at the time that the decision was taken.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seemed to be a bad idea. It has caused far too many problems. And the problems seemed endless.

The question is - can we revert back to the old signal system?

My guess is that the old system requires drivers to operate the trains. It does not rely on the signal system to the same extent.

Maybe we are short of train drivers? Maybe many of them have been retrenched or resigned?

In the absence of reliable information, it is not possible for any outsider to give any sensible assessment. I will not want to pass any judgment under these circumstances.

I only want to say that this kind of massive problem require people with the skill of problem solving. They need to get the reliable information and solve the problem using an interactive, learning approach.

I am sure that our scholars have passed top marks with their problem solving skills in class. Here is a real life challenge for them to deal with.

Tan Kin Lian

Performance bonus in the public sector

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - is it good to have performance bonus in the public sector?

If I am not mistaken, the public sector pays a performance bonus that depends on achieving the KPIs. This goes all the way up to the prime minister.

91% of the people who voted said that it is bad to have a performance bonus for two reasons:

a) It will breed a wrong culture where the bonus is more important than duty to the job.
b) Public sector employees should focus on the duty to the job rather than achieve a higher performance bonus.

9% said that a performance bonus create a positive work attitude and motivate the employees to reduce cost and achieve the KPI

See a breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=365

Independent inquiry into the flooding of MRT tunnes

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do we need to call an independent inquiry into the flooded tunnel?

The minister for transport had said earlier that there is no need for an independent enquiry as the cause of the flooding was quite clear.

91% of the people who voted said that an independent inquiry is needed for two reasons. 9% agreed with the minister that the inquiry is not needed.

See the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Pay attention to this warning

When you meet with a motor accident and the repairer offers to handle the claim for you, the repairer will ask you to sign a letter of authorisation for them to submit the claim on your behalf.

Be careful! You may be heading for big trouble.

Some motorists have got into trouble before and have sought my help.

Here is a message from a senior person in the commercial affairs department giving a warning that requires your attention.

http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=540

Avoid getting involved in motor insurance fraud

SINGAPORE: Amid increasing reports of fraudulent traffic accidents, the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD) has warned that cases of motor insurance fraud are usually linked to large-scale crime syndicates.

Head of the insurance and specialised fraud branch, Superintendent of Police Abdul Rani Abdul Sani, said many are lured into getting involved without knowing the “severe” consequences they face.

The syndicates stage accidents and trick individuals into submitting fraudulent claims using their name. Ultimately, the costs of such claims will be borne by motorists in the form of higher insurance premiums.

“The public should know what’s happening so they don’t easily get conned into joining such activities,” Supt Rani added.

http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=540