Quora: Why does China seem so confident in the Trade War?

Jonathan Tan, was an avid reader of science magazines answered.

Because while the US is spending 680 billion every year (that’s closing in on a trillion) on their military, China is spending 150 billion for their military and 150+ billion every year on their one road, one belt project.

The US military budget is a hole. It goes out but nothing comes back in (this is why the US is always looking to fight a war where it can benefit resource wise and where the opponent isn’t too tough)

China’s military budge is a hole too but its 20% of the US and their road/belt is very smart as it is simply loaning money which mostly goes to Chinese construction companies (remember both are year by year). This brings several benefits

i) Employment. The number of Chinese is huge. Finding suitable employment for all is difficult. This allows them to maintain a lid on low skilled workers while letting them do on the job training for higher skills, for a double win

ii) Loans. The loans can either be low interest or interest free but the money comes back (in the form of leased assets or actual returns)

iii) Improvement in logistics. This is massively important because this allows China to access primary resources found in hard to reach areas in reasonable time and a reliable manner.

iv) New markets. Any trader wants a new market for their goods, even if the trader is the size of a nation. By improving economic conditions in the country hosting the road/belt, they create more able consumers who can spend more.

The money the Chinese are spending improves their own economic conditions. As long as the road/belt continues in a timely manner, the impact of losing the US export market is reduced.

Off tangent:

Why would the host countries want to be involved in the road/belt when all these western news are shouting “Its a debt trap!!!” (which is true when the host country has terrible planners). I suspect China’s view is that its a bank/business, so you default, you lose your collateral

The reasons differ from each country but some are common.

i) The infrastructure built allows you to move goods and people around much easier. This allows the exploitation of resources in areas that may have been hard to travel to and from.

For example, farmers in villages where the road is a mud track won’t be able to transport their goods far before it rots and weather can strand them as the road

Quora: Why do some people not admit that China is in the weaker side in the trade war against the US?

Andres Garcia, I have lived and studied in several American countries answered.

Because for many people China is not on the weaker side.
Because some people know that strength in a globalized economy cannot be measured by that outdated term known as “trade deficit”.
Because some people know that many times it can be worse for a country to lose its imports than reducing its exports, especially for a 21st century consumer-based economy.
Because some people read more than one source to get their news, and don't call any information they don't like as “fake news”
Because for some people facts still have more weight than wishes.
How is that good-and-easy-to-win trade war going, by the way? Last time that I checked, by mere curiosity, the TV channel preferred by the president, they claimed about a thousand times that China was going to surrender very soon. This happened around a year and a half ago.

Doctor too busy to give proper advice

A patent paid $1,100 to a health screening package (platinum male) with SATA in Potong Pasir.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2124

WOTC - Opinion of female ministers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 86% of the participants in this survey did not like any of the female ministers. Among the remaining 14%, the highest vote goes to Indriani Rajah.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1648

WOTC - Opinion of speaker Tan Chuan Jin

Wisdom of the Crowd: 77% of the participants in this survey had a negative opinion of speaker Tan Chuan Jin. 23% had a positive opinion.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1648

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the western part of Singapore used used to test autonomous cars?

2. Donald Trump said he built the greatest economy in the history of America

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Quora: Trump is bringing back manufacturing to the USA and rejecting other countries' markets. Will the USA fare better with the anti-globalism policies?

Jon Mixon, worked at Manufacturing answered

First things first: Donald Trump has nothing to do with some aspects of minor manufacturing returning to the United States.

Major corporations make their decisions years or even decades in advance. They certainly don’t wait for the minor input of a man whose business acumen is known to be laughable at best. And since many are multinationals, they really don’t care who makes their products, or where, so long as they can profit from them.

Trump’s trade plans are a hodgepodge of items that he thinks will sell his candidacy in 2020 to the few voters who don’t understand trade policies and who think that he still has the capability of running this country successfully. They aren’t based on sound logic, they are provoking our own allies to reject our input, and they are simply making the nations which he’s trying to combat seek out other markets for their imports. None of what he’s doing is helping the US in the long run.

Trade doesn’t need to be a zero sum game. Everybody can, and should, “win” as it benefits no one to have high tariffs and closed markets. Trump has been told that by his economic advisers; however since that doesn’t align with his thinking or the policies that he believes will garner him the rural and red state votes he needs to win, he’s rejecting it. Frankly, since he gets paid regardless of what happens and his acolytes have proven that they don’t believe that he can make a wrong decision, there’s no reason for him to bother creating or maintaining coherent policies.

Trump is not “bringing manufacturing back”.

He’s taking credit for decisions which were made for a host of reasons, the majority of which have nothing to do with him or his failing policies.

WOTC - Was it wise for Jokowi to appoint Subianto into his cabinet?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 74% of the participants in this survey said that it is a good idea for Jokowi to appoint his opponent in the presidential election to hold a key position in his cabinet. 26% disagreed.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1647

WOTC - Does the economy needs a stimulus package now?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 89% of the participants in this survey disagreed with finance minister Heng that the economy does not need a stimulus package yet. The other 11% agreed.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1646

Move to Electronic Mail

Sing Post is increasing its rates for mails and parcels. This is unavoidable, as their operating cost has increased. There is an increased volume of mail and parcels to be delivered. Their existing rates are not adequate to meet the operating cost.

It is time for us to move to more efficient ways of communication.

What can be done?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2117

Financial Planning Tip #1 - Save Regularly

I will be writing 10 separate articles on financial planning.

Here is Tip #1 - Save Regularly.

It will be restricted for FISCA members in the future, but for the time being, it is open to the public.

Read about it now.
http://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=656&Name=Financial-Planning---Tip-#1---Save-regularly&View=A

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is the behavior of the netizens towards Ramesh of JP Morgan appropriate?
2. Is the general behavior of Singaporeans gracious?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Will Anwar Ibrahim be a good prime minister for Malaysia

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the participants in this survey has a positive view of Anwar Ibrahim as the next prime minister of Malaysia. 31% has a negative view.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1644

WOTC - What will happen to Hong Kong

Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of the participants in this survey expect that the police will continue to deal with the situation in Hong Kong and China will not act to stop the rioting. The other 40% expect other outcomes.

See the breakdown of the votes in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1644

AIA continues to charge high rates for unsuspecting customer

Dear Mr Tan,
I am writing to you to seek your opinion as a veteran in the insurance industry. My wife "KMM" bought an AIA life insurance with a 5-yr Term rider back in 1995 when she was 25. The 5-year Term rider started with a S$176/year premium for S$100,000 coverage. However, after 25 years, I found out that the premium has ballooned to S$630/year for the same 5-year Term.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2115

Provide fire extinguishers at public places

I suggest that the ministry require all buildings to have fire extinguishes at public places, e.g. on every level of an apartment or office block and for long corridors, to have a fire extinguisher for every five units.

This will ensure that the fire extinguishes are easily accessible for every household. As this is a public property, the building manager can ensure that the fire extinguishers are checked and replaced regularly.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2116

Quora: Why does Trump's trade war with China actually hurt Beijing less?

Richard Seeto, because of my interest in its history and the way it has been exploited & rubbis

The reason Trump’s trade war with China actually hurt Beijing less is because of many factors.

Firstly, China has been hardened by decades past of the US perfidy in its diplomatic and commercial dealings with the country which uses sanctions in all sort of ways as its first resort in dealing with any problems of its own short-sighted making.

Secondly, unlike Trump who is making conflict by reneging on decades old traditional dealings with the world and alienating every country it feels like, China is making friends with others and promoting trade so that where her exports to the world hegemon diminishes, she is making up for the slack with her other export destinations.

Thirdly, with Trump’s logic, the imposition of his tariffs on China was claimed by him that it is China who is paying for the extra imposts fully realizing that the importer, in this case, the US which is footing the bill but those of his supporters are so blinded by his lies, swallow his every word, hook, line and sinker would accept his words without question.

Security in a condo

What is the purpose of employing security guards in a condo?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2112

Paul Krugman - People still don’t understand debt

New York Times

By Paul Krugman Opinion Columnist

Today’s column is about our trillion dollar deficit, which nobody seems to care about. The thing is, this lack of concern is justified: There’s no good reason to believe that the current budget deficit is doing significant harm.

What did do a lot of harm was the deficit hysteria that dominated establishment discourse the last time we had a deficit this big, which also happened to be a period during which the economy was deeply depressed, and the stimulus from deficit spending was actually a good thing. It should have been obvious that obsessing about deficits in 2012 was a huge mistake. What’s relatively new — and something I couldn’t get into at length in the column — is the realization that government debt isn’t much of a problem even at full employment.

One reason people find this hard to understand is that they make an analogy between the nation as a whole and an individual family. This leads to sober-sounding warnings that budget deficits amount to stealing from our children, in the same way that spendthrift parents are squandering their heirs’ inheritance.

This analogy, however, is all wrong. Debt is money we owe to ourselves — that is, for the most part it obliges one group of Americans, taxpayers, to make payments to another group of Americans, bondholders. It doesn’t directly make the nation poorer, at all. (O.K., there’s a small caveat: some debt is held by foreigners. But it’s not quantitatively important.)

Now, there might be indirect ways in which debt makes us poorer. To pay interest, the government might have to spend less or collect more taxes than it would have otherwise. And this could hurt growth — for example, high taxes could reduce incentives to produce and invest.

What economists have come to realize, however, is that even these indirect costs of debt may be negligible.

Why, after all, must a government raise taxes to deal with a higher level of debt? The usual answer is that if it doesn’t, the debt will snowball: the government will have to pay more in interest, which will cause the debt to rise further, leading to even more interest payments, and so on.

But nobody cares about the absolute value of debt; what matters is the ratio of debt to the tax base, which for the federal government is basically the whole economy, i.e., G.D.P. And a rise in the debt/G.D.P. ratio doesn’t snowball — it melts! Why? Because the interest rate on federal debt is normally lower than the economy’s growth rate.

Right now, in particular, U.S. 10-year bonds are paying less than 2 percent, while G.D.P. normally grows around 4 percent a year — half real, half rising prices. So even if the government only raised enough money to pay noninterest expenses, totally ignoring interest, debt would grow more slowly than the economy, and the ratio to G.D.P. would shrink over time. So the government does need, more or less, to pay for what it spends, but taking on more debt now won’t make that task any harder in the future.

I don’t want to say that debt never does any harm. And if you’re going to run up debt, it should be for a good purpose, like rebuilding infrastructure, not to give rich people even more money to spend on luxuries. But debt isn’t a huge evil, and bringing it down shouldn’t be anyone’s priority.

Quick Hits

The debt crisis in Europe motivated a lot of the hysteria here. But that crisis vanished for everyone but Greece when Mario Draghi, the outgoing president of the European Central Bank, said three words — “whatever it takes” — which markets saw as a pledge to provide cash if needed. And now even Greece has interest rates below 2 percent.

Olivier Blanchard, the immensely respected former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, on why debt isn’t as scary as you think.

The very establishment Larry Summers and Jason Furman make a similar argument.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. When will Anwar Ibrahim take over as prime minister

2. Which issue will cause the biggest loss of vote to PAP?
3. Will the CECA agreement cause Heng SK to lose votes?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx