NTUC website for SIRS application is down

My friend tried to login to this website, operated by NTUC, to submit an application for the Self Employed Income Relief scheme. He was not able to login.

He has been trying several times for a few days. He was not able to login.

He has wasted a lot of time. This is probably the experience of several tens of thousand of applicants.

Maybe several hundred thousand applicants are trying to login .

I can make a guess what has happened. The website was designed to carry out the entire process flow. This is a complicated process, as it probably requires to check the entered data against many government websites. Any of these links could be a cause of failure.

The complicated system can probably handle a limited number of transactions every minute. When the volume exceeds this capacity, it is likely to crash the system.

This is probably what had happened.

If I were to design the system, I would create a light weight website that allows the applicant to enter just the essential details - name, email, telephone, occupation.

It will not attempt to ask for documents to be uploaded or to verify the information.

My lightweight website is considered as stage 1.

I will then send an email to the applicants with a link to go to the full website to go through the entire process. I will time the sending out of the email so that the volume is controlled to a level that the system can cope. This will not crash the system.

Stage 1 can be considered to be a queuing system. It will manage stage 2 to spread out the actual processing of the applications.

I hope that a person in charge can work on this this suggestion soon.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2933

WOTC - Vote in the general election

Wisdom of the Crowd: 90% of the respondents said that they will vote non-PAP at the general election.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1957

WOTC - Performance of ministers in Task Force

Wisdom of the Crowd: 88% of the respondents have a negative opinion about the performance of the ministers in the task force.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1956

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is the rally in the global stock market justified?
2. Do the infected foreign workers pose a serious danger to the general community?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not be caught looking like an idiot

Think before you make your comment or ask stupid questions.
Do not be caught looking like an idiot. OK?

Read this post
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Testing of 300,000 foreign workers

I have seen comments by many people - why can't we test all the foreign workers in the dormitory at one go? Why are we testing them in small batches every day?

The answer is simple.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2928

Herd immunity among the foreign workers?

We may already have achieved herd immunity among the foreign workers. What does this mean?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2927

Sale of regulatory credit by Tesla

The average forecast of Wall Street analysts was a loss of $0.36 per spare for Tesla for 1Q 2020. The actual results showed a profit of $1.24 per share.

Why were the analysts wrong? One contributing factor was the income of $354 million from the sale of regulatory credit, which is 64% higher than 1Q of 2019.

What is this regulatory credit? It is given to a car manufacturer based on the qualifying vehicles that it sold. This is to encourage manufacturers to move to electric vehicles.

If the car manufacturer did not achieve its quota, it has to pay a penalty on the shortfall. Alternatively, it can buy the credit from another manufacturer like Tesla.

As Tesla makes only electric vehicles, it has a lot of regulatory credit to sell to other manufacturers.

The question is - why does Tesla sells more credit during 1Q 2020 than normal? The answer is simple - Tesla lowers the price of the regulatory credit to get the revenue booked in the quarter, so that it can show a profit.

It is a simple business strategy. All businesses lower the price to increase the sales, right?

In spite of the challenges for 2Q 2020, I expect that Tesla will continue to make a profit. They will then qualify to be included in the S&P 500.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2926

Why are some foreign workers not infected?

I have revised this article about the infection of the foreign workers living in dormitories. Instead of creating a panic, I wish to suggest that the findings actually suggest some good news.

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker?

2. Will the second wave of covid-19 be more serious?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Win a book prize

A book prize will be given out to all participants who submitted at least 10 votes for the Wisdom of the Crowd website for this month. It will close tomorrow.

To win this prize, you can vote now.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/u_issue.aspx

WOTC - Extension of circuit breaker

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents support the extension of the circuit breaker by another month. 33% disagree.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1955

WOTC - TraceTogether app

Wisdom of the Crowd: 19% of the respondents have tried the TraceTogether app and like it. 17% tried it and gave it up. The others are not aware about it.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1954

Will there be a second wave of the covid-19

Many countries have implemented strict lockdown measures and have seen a reduction in new cases.

They are worried about the risk of a second wave of infections after they relaxed the lockdown or when the weather becomes cold again after another six months.

My reasoning is that the second wave will be less severe. Here are my reasons:

a) After the current wave, a high proportion of the population would have been exposed to the virus and have developed some form of immunity. During the next wave, the virus will cause less harm.

b) It is likely that the more vulnerable segment of the population, i.e. the elderly and those with underlying conditions, would have died during the first wave. Those who survive would probably be stronger.

This is my reasoning based on logic, common sense and my reading of many articles on the virus. I hope that I am right.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2921

Why is only 25% of foreign workers is tested positive?

During the past two weeks, about 3,000 tests are carried out each day with the foreign workers living in dormitories. About 750 are found to be infected. This represents an infection rate of 25%.

Many people panicked and worried about the 750 new cases (or thereabouts) that are identified each day.

I like to ask the question - what happened to the other 75%? Surely, if the virus is so contagious, the foreign workers are living so densely together, and a large number are already infected, we should expect 100% to be infected?

I have positive news to share with you.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2920

Circuit breaker caused economic downturn

Bad news for Japan and Singapore. Economic problems ahead

Japan, Singapore could be the worst-hit Asian economies in the coronavirus pandemic, says Moody's Analytics - https://www.cnbc.com/…/japan-singapore-worst-hit-asian-econ…

TKL comment. Singapore would not be badly hit if it had just continued its containment measures, i.e. safe distancing and wear face mask, without calling the circuit breaker for four weeks. It is insane now to extend the circuit breaker for another four weeks.

The impact of the virus is quite mild. Although there was a large increase of over 10,000 new cases over the past three weeks, the death rate remained at 2 per million (compared to 200 to 500 in America and some countries in Europe) and the ICU cases is steady at less than 30 (actually 22 today).

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2916

Contact tracing in Germany

We can adopt this approach to carry out contact tracing more efficiently and ensure that there is proper follow up and avoid duplication of work and confusion.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2915

Mobile app from DBS

When DBS introduced its mobile app for personal banking and corporate banking, I tried them and gave up.

I found the setup process to be too difficult and troublesome. the instructions were confusing.

A few months later, I tried the mobile apps again. This time I have to get the help from the support staff. I managed to overcome the difficult set up process.

I have now got used to these apps. I find it to be quite convenient and useful.

I still find the apps to be quite complicated. They have too many functions that I do not need and add to the confusion. But I managed to identify the functions that I need and learn how to use them.

I will give DBS a good rating for their apps. But I wish that they had kept them simpler and most certainly have a simpler set up process.

I hope that they will learn, but apparently, they do not listen.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2914

Deaths due to covid-19

As at 26 April, a total of 207,000 people have died from the covid-19 virus around the world. Based on projection, this number is likely to be between 500,000 to 1 million by the end of 2020.

In my view, this is not the additional deaths caused by the covid virus. Most of these deaths would have occurred anyway, but many are being blamed on this virus.

Let me explain my view.

About 3 million people die from pneumonia each year, before the appearance of the covid virus.

Most of the people who died from the covid virus come from this group. If the covid virus did not appear, these people would still have died from pneumonia, caused by a virus, bacterial or fungi. The actual germ would probably not be identified. This year, the covid virus will get the blame for many of these deaths.

It is possible that the covid virus is directly responsible for some of the deaths.

But for many of the deaths outside of the hospital, the covid virus will get the blame if it is found in the body of the deceased - even though it might not be the main cause of the death.

We have to wait for the total figures of death from pneumonia and covid-19 to appear. If this total is higher than the 3 million that is counted in prior years, the virus would have caused the additional deaths.

I react to the pandemic with a sense of calmness. Even though I know that it is dangerous, I do not wish to exaggerate its impact.

I agree to the precautions that have to be taken to avoid the spread of the virus to the elderly and the people with underlying health conditions. But I do not react with panic about the spread of the virus to the young people.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2912

Most new cases are mild

Today, 26 April, is day 19 of the circuit breaker.

The ministers panicked and called the circuit breaker when they saw the number of new cases jumped up. Over the past two weeks, the cases jumped by several hundreds and some days over one thousand a day.

The total cases must have jumped by by almost 10,000 during this period.

I monitored the number of patients in intensive care unit (ICU) due to covid virus. It remained stable at the current level, which is less than 30,.

In spite of the large number of new cases that have been reported, we did not see any large increase in ICU cases. Most of the new cases are mild.

The number of deaths increase by 1 or 2 during this period, to reach a total of 12.

If the virus is serious, I would expect the ICU cases to jump up by a large number during the past 2 weeks. It did not happen.

As of today, the message from cov.sg showed the following:

total cases: 12,693
hospitalised: 1,214 (24 in ICU)
in community facilities: 10,465
fatalities - 12
total discharged: 1,002

Most of the new cases are being monitored at the community facilities. Our hospitals are not overwhelmed.

There is no need for the public to be alarmed about the large numbers of new cases that are reported each day. Even the large number of unlinked cases are not important - because they do not lead to the increase of the critically ill (i.e. ICU cases).

It seemed the the covid virus is rather mild in Singapore, unlike the case in other countries with cold climates.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2908

Carry out a random test on the population

It is important for the government to carry out a random test to estimate the proportion of the population that has already been infected by the covid virus.

This will help them to make better decision on how to deal with the virus. They should avoid extreme measures that may be unnecessary and are so costly to the economy and to the livelihood of several hundred thousand families.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwIimYSTvlQ

A better way to capture contact tracing detail

China has introduced an app for contract tracing. The public has to use a mobile phone and scan a QR code. The app will show the color code and identify if the person is okay or need to be tested.

It is a good approach.

I have already developed a better approach. Instead of the public using a mobile phone (and some elderly people or children do not carry a mobile phone), they can use a QR code that is pasted to a transit card and use it for contact tracing.

As an alternative, a new transit card can be issued with the QR code already embedded. The public does not need to go through a separate process of pasting the QR code.

The checker will use a mobile phone to read the QR code. It works like the app in China but works in reverse.

I have prepared this video to show how my system works. I hope that the people in charge in Singapore can accept this idea. We can have a solution that is as good, actually better, than China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcRQVUZOE4w&t=36s

Give your vote here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2904

Perhaps 7% of people in Singapore already got the virus

New York state carried out a random test and found 13.9% of the population already infected. The rate is 21.2% in New York City.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/coronavirus-new-york-millions-residents-may-have-been-infected-antibody-test/3012920001/

If a random test is carried out in Singapore, I expect to see a rate of 7% (one third of New York City). This means that 400,000 people in Singapore would have already been infected.

I estimate a lower rate in Singapore, compared to New York City, because of our warm climate. The WHO statistics showed that 12% of the people who have been tested are found to be positive. The testing was carried out mainly with the foreign workers and the people who have been in contact or with symptoms.

The government now reports very low new cases in the community. This is likely to be grossly understated. We are seeing a very low number because so few people are being tested.

Even though more people are likely to have been infected in Singapore, we do not need to panic. The death rate from the virus is quite low in Singapore. Very few people need ICU treatment.

We only need to worry when these numbers spite up many fold. So far, they have remain stable.

It is important for Singapore to carry out a random test now. The actual data will guide the policy makers to make better decisions on how to deal with the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2903

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is the biggest mistake made by the ministerial task force?

2. Will the increase in infection lead to many deaths in Singapore?


Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Use of data for contact tracing

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents support the use of mobile phone location data for contact tracing. 33% worry that it is invasion of privacy.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1952

WOTC - Accommodation for foreign workers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 38% of the respondents said that we should reduce our reliance on foreign workers. 62% said that we should provide better accommodation for them.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1953

Focus on useful activities to combat the covid-19 virus

I visited Greenwich V mall. I had to queue up before entering the mall. The security officer took the temperature of the shoppers. I recorded 35 C. I asked the officer to retake the temperature. It still record 35 C. I told her that I was just taken out of the fridge. 

It is clear that the temperature gun is not working properly. But the security officer does not know.

I had to record my name and contact number. The recording of this contact tracing details was what caused the delay in the queue.

I wonder how the contact tracing detail can be used. If an infected person visit the mall, will all the shoppers who visited the mall on the same day be traced?

I think that this is a waste of time. But we are doing it all the place, perhaps in a few thousand malls and offices. We have been doing it for several months.

Does the ministerial task force pay attention to this matter? Do they realize that they are distracting people from the real risks of spreading the disease, with the useless activities?

I prefer that the security officer spend the time to show people how they can use the sanitizers and help them check their face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2902

Death rate from covid-19 in Sweden

Some people said that Sweden did not impose a lockdown and that has led to a high death rate from covid-19.

I want to share the following facts.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2898

Quora: Ask China to pay compensation for covid-19 losses

Yan Cao, former International Trade

Updated Apr 8

How likely is it Donald Trump will suggest China should pay compensation for the economic impact of covid-19 on the US and what would his reasoning be?

Yes,Trump should do that,why not?

But wait a minute, all of sudden I thought of some other countries. Vietnam might request America to pay 1000 billions of dollars for the lives Americans killed in Vietnam War. North Korea would increase that price tag to $10,000 billions. What about U.S. invasion of Iraq without finding Saddam’s MDW ? How many billions of dollars U.S. should pay to 151,000 people killed there ?

Cuba ,Venezuela and Iran would demand the U.S. to pay compensation for the huge loss caused by U.S. sanctions and embargo.

Hundreds of thousands of victims of 2009 H1N1 deadly flu might request for their compensation….,on and on ,never ending.

Covid-19 infection rate in the community

What is the infection rate of covid-19 in the community.

The WHO statistics showed that 94,796 tests were carried out in Singapore and 10,141 (10.7%) were found to be infected.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2894

Evil or stupid?

My friend made this observation.

He said. The ministers know that the corona virus is not lethal. But they ordered and extended the circuit breaker to scare the people that the virus is spreading fast and they are doing something to stop it.

They know that the new cases will drop by end of May, when they complete the testing of the foreign workers.

They will then announce that their circuit breaker had worked and the gullible people will be grateful for their excellent stewardship. Then they will call the general election - as the crisis is over.

TKL said - But they would have damaged the livelihood of a few hundred thousand people. It will take a long term for the damage to be repaired.

If this is the case, that the ministers had done an evil thing. I hope that the people will not be fooled by this deception.

So, the ministers are either evil or stupid. Which one?

Worrying about the unknown

Many people are worried about the covid-19 virus. They worry about the mutation of the virus. They worry about how long the virus can spread with people that have or do not have symptoms. They worry about the reinfection of the people who have been cured.

I ask them to look beyond the unknowns and focus on what is known and staring us in the eye.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2893

WOTC - Circuit breaker measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 83% of the respondents said that the circuit breaker measures were necessary to stop the spread of the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1951

WOTC - Relief measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 89% of the respondents said that the three relief packages will be largely wasted and will not take care of the long term challenges facing the people.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1950

facebook.com/kinlian

I put up several posts every day in my Facebook page, which are not repeated in my Blog.

You can go to that page and Like it.

www.facebook.com/kinlian

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it wise to extend the circuit breaker measures?

2. Was the virus well contained?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Testing for the covid-19 virus

Somebody asked the questions - why does it take so long to test the foreign workers? Why can't we test the locals also? Why do we restrict the testing to only people with symptoms? Can we test everybody?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2892

Difficult to read the MOH website

I had a lot of trouble to search the MOH website for statistics on the covid-19 cases.

I finally arrived at this webpage
https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

It was a confusing page. It provided links to the following:
 

a) situation report
b) Interactive situation report

The first link lead to another page that contains the daily report in PDF. I am not able to download or view the PDF.

The second link took a long time to load and presents graphs that are hard to follow.

It would be more useful if MOH would just give the tables in Excel or PDF that can be easily displayed or downloaded.

They should just follow what is done in the WHO website.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

I cannot understand why MOH has to make life so difficult for the public.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2891

Take initiative according to the situation

I watched the performance of Phantom of the Opera on YouTube.
There was a segment that is relevant to Singapore and I like to share the moral of the incident.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2890

Elderly woman insist on eating at the hawker center

Someone shared a video about an elderly woman who insisted on eating at the table in the hawker center. The enforcement officer asked her to eat at home, but she refused. She shouted "You can fine me. I don't care".

Most people think that the woman was acting in an irresponsible manner. She refused to comply with the law and with the request of the enforcement officer.

I share a different perspective.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2889

Rationale of contact tracing

Contact tracing is effective when the number of infected persons is low, say less than say 500. It is possible to trace all the people who have been in contact with the infected person and ask them to go for testing or isolation.

It is difficult to carry out contact tracing when there is a large number of infected people in the community. Any new case could be infected by any of the previously infected person. It will be difficult to trace the source of contact. It might even give misleading results - for example X is thought to be infected by Y when he was actually infected by Z.

During the past few weeks, we read about several tens of new cases which could not be traced.  The cumulative total of untraced cases is not reported, but is estimated to number a few hundreds.

I think that it is time to abandon the contact tracing efforts, as it takes a lot of resources and do not provide any useful outcome. 

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2885

Quora: President Trump tweeted that 17,000 people died from Swine Flu under Obama. How does this compare to his Coronavirus numbers?

Someone replied:

First, the swine flu did not kill 17,000 people, as Trump maintained in his tweet. Nor did it kill 14,000, the figure he cited days earlier. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that H1N1 killed about 12,500 Americans between April 2009 and 2010, far fewer people than typically die each year from the flu. (Trump has gotten this figure right on other occasions.)

Second, the president’s characterization of the government’s response does not match reality. If anything, the response to H1N1 was swift in comparison to the current administration’s handling of the coronavirus.

“I assume what he’s trying to say is somehow he’s doing a much better job,” Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of health and human services under Obama, said in an interview Wednesday. “I just find that totally baffling. Anybody who looks at the comparisons very quickly understands that this is not the case.”

WOTC - Re-use face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 76% of the respondents said that it is safe to re-use a face mask subject to proper cleaning. 24% disagreed.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1948

WOTC - Factory to make face mask

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that Singapore should open our own factory to make face masks.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1949

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Did the government make the right judgment to call the circuit breaker?

2. What should the government do with the large infection of workers in dormitories?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Do not falsely claim the support of others

I hosted a Zoom meeting to discuss the covid-19 crisis.

One participant said, something along this line - I, like the rest of you, do not trust the figures from China.

I send to him an email the following day. I said - I wish to be excluded from your statement. I do not share the same view as you, or other people, on this matter.

Lesson: It is a common practice, and a bad one, for a person to claim that he represents the views of other people, when he does not.

A person should stand on his own views, and not claim support from other people, which are not justified.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2881

Bad judgment by ministerial task force

The ministerial task force made a bad judgment. In early April, they panicked and decided to introduce the circuit breaker. They closed down most workplaces (except for the essential ones), food outlets and schools and ordered the people to stay at home for four weeks.

Why was this a bad judgment?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2880

Carry out the covid test for all healthcare workers

I suggest that our health care workers should be given the covid-19 test. This is to protect their health and also the health of the patients.

In America, these workers were given priority for the covid tests, even though they were not symptomatic. All health care workers were tested.

I also suggest that the results of the tests should be published. We need to know how many workers were tested, how many were found to be infected and asymptomatic, and how many were symptomatic.

This results may give an indication of the actual spread of the virus in the general population. We can assume that the health care workers is a representative sample of the population.

With this data and results, we will be able to make better decisions on future containment measures.

Ministerial task force - I hope that you are listening.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2879

Lesson from New York

New York City is the epicenter of the covid-19 crisis in America. It had many cases and many deaths. The projections by the disease experts were dire. New York needs to have more treatment capacity. They need a thousand ventilators, maybe more.

A major project was undertaken to convert Javits Center in New York City, which was normally a convention center, into a treatment center with 1,700 beds.

The report below said that only 44 beds were used. The rest was left empty. It seemed that the projection was wrong.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2878

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should Temasek Holdings publish the salaries of its top executives?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Are medicated products from China defective?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 80% of the respondents said that some of the medical products from China are defective for acceptable reasons, but the media played up this issue. 20% said that the quality is generally poor.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1946

WOTC - Competent and dedicated ministers

Wisdom of the Crowd: 14% of the respondents said that we have capable and dedicated ministers in Singapore. 86% disagreee.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1947

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?
2. Why is the death rate in Singapore so much lower than America and Europe?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - How to deal with a shortage of ventilators

Wisdom of the Crowd: 68% of the respondents preferred to set a limit on the number of days that a patient can be placed on a ventilator to make them available to new patients, in case of a shortage of ventilators.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1945

WOTC - Is the government adopting the right approach?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that the government is adopting the wrong approach in dealing with the covid-19 crisis.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1944

Should the circuit breaker be extended beyond 4 May?

In taking this decision, I suggest that the ministerial task force look at the new cases from the community only, and exclude the new cases from the worker dormitories.

The infected workers from the dormitories have been identified by comprehensive testing and were sent to hospital wards or isolation facilities. This would have prevented their infecting the wider community.

Currently, the new cases from the community number about 30 a day. It is a small number. It has been kept at a steady level. It is not increasing at an alarming rate.

Furthermore, from the experience of the dormitories, most of the infected cases were mild.

If the task force wish to extend the circuit breaker for a further period, they have to be mindful of the cost to the government and the additional cost to the businesses and households.

Based on the information available to me, I cannot see how they can justify making any decision to extend the circuit breaker. It would be folly.

However, if they are worried about an increase in severe cases, they should prepare for more hospital beds, ventilators and health care workers to be available. They should also employ specially screened care givers to take care of the elderly sick in nursing homes and those living alone.

The additional cost to expand the medical and care facilities is miniscule, compared to the cost of extending the circuit breaker.

I hope that the ministerial task force comes out with a sensible decision.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

MOH now explains the increase in new cases is due to more testing

For the last few days, I have been saying - don't worry about the big increase in new cases. It is due to large scale testing of the foreign workers living in the dormitories. It is the result of the protocol that required all contacts to be traced and tested.

I also said - if the task force is carrying out more testing recently compared to the past, they should make a statement about it. It is a relevant fact for people to understand the large increase in new cases. They should not hide this relevant fact.

Well, the report today, sent by Gov.SG, said that the increase in new cases is due to more tests being carried out. It also suggested that the new cases will drop when the tests are completed.

Guess where they learn about this fact? Someone must be monitoring my post, right? They probably told the ministers about it.

Why did our highly qualified and highly paid ministers in the task force not aware about this common sense fact earlier on? Why do they panic, and call the circuit breaker, when they learned about the increase in new cases?

The circuit breaker is probably not necessary. It probably cost the economy $10 billion in losses - $4 billion from the government relief measures and (my guess) $6 billion in losses suffered by businesses and households.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2874

Stay home and be safe

I have seen this statement on many occasions - stay home and be safe.

This may be a bad idea. Why?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2873

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot justify bad decisions

Here is one nonsensical statement that some people throw at me - Mr. Tan, what is more important, money or lives?

This is my answer. We are probably spending $10 billion ($4 billion from the government stimulus measures and $6 billion from losses suffered by businesses and households), to save lives.

Nobody made any estimate about how many lives we would save by spending the $10 billion.

It cannot be that many, because so far, only 11 people have died from covid and another 23 are in ICU and some may die also.

The irony is - after spending (rather wasting) $10 billion, we will not be saving that many lives.

Rhetoric and nonsense cannot be used to justify wasting money that can be used to alleviate poverty and hunger in Singapore or in reducing the stress from the high cost of living in Singapore. These "diseases" kill more people than covid.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2872

Need for Singapore organizations to improve their customer service

I have been worried about the appalling state of customer service in government agencies and big businesses in Singapore. I have provided many feedback over the years, but their top management does not bother. Nobody bothers.

I want to share a positive experience with a company from China. It is OPPO, which is the manufacturer of the mobile phone that I use.

Read here.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2871

Positive cases detected through testing of patients at clinics

There was a report that several patients visiting clinics were tested at random for covid-19 and a certain number was found to be positive. This suggested that the community spread was more widespread than thought previously.

I was not surprised by this finding. It would be more helpful if the ministry of health disclosed the number that were tested and the number that were found to be positive and the proportion that were asymptomatic.

This is actually good news for the people in Singapore and probably bad news for the ministerial task force.

Why do I say so? It might expose their incompetence!
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2869

Enforcing the wearing of mask

I saw a few videos, shared through social media, about the difficulties faced by the enforcement officers in getting people to wear the mask. The officers were pleading with the public, often in a loud voice, to observe the regulations.

Who is to blame for these incidents?

a) The public who does not comply with the new regulations?
b) The enforcement officers who are adopting the enforcement in a rigid manner?

Here are my views.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2868

Excellent customer service from Xiaomi

I wish to commend Xiaomi for their excellent customer service.

My smart band 3 failed within the 1 year warranty period. I searched online for information on how to claim on the warranty.

I found a website that allowed me to send a message to the customer service location. The online form required me to fill up my name, email, telephone and the detail of my request.

I was able to submit the online form easily. It took me just one minute.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2867

Analyze the data obtained from the covid tests

The ministerial task force is probably carrying out large scale testings of the foreign workers living in dormitories. This is costing a huge sum of money. The purpose is to identify who are found to be infected for the virus and to put them in quarantine.

The task force should not miss the opportunity to analyze the results and learn valuable findings about the corona virus.

What other information are useful?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2866

Join the international band wagon

Americans are scared of the coronavirus. It has already killed 105 per million of the population. It is so scary that the entire country has been logged down. I understand their concern. If we have 105 per million deaths in Singapore, I would also be scared.

Singaporeans are also terribly scared of the coronavirus. We are scared because Americans are scared, Europeans are scared and nearly everybody else is scared.

The coronavirus has killed 2 per million people in Singapore, but to the Singaporeans and the ministers in the task force, it does not make any difference. They cannot tell the difference between 105 and 2 deaths per million.

According to these people, every life is important. All deaths should be avoided.

These people think that the coronavirus is the only way to die.

They do not realize that there are another 3,498 people per million people who found other ways to die. These other deaths are not important, because our ministerial task force did not elevate them to the limelight.

I use a death rate of 3.5 per thousand for Singapore. This is provided by official statistics. There is another statistics that reported a death rate is 5 per thousand. It make no difference to my reasoning about our nonsensical approach.

So, Singapore also go into a lockdown, except that our ministers call it the circuit breaker and some people mistakenly call it the short circuit. Yeah, their thinking is short circuited.

Whenever I explained these statistics, I will get some over-reacted scare mongers scold me with all kinds of illogical arguments and personal statements.

One of them asked how I would feel if a foreign worker passed the virus to my maid who pass it to my family. I don't know how to reply to this kind of statement, so I just ignored it.

With the latest increase in new cases (which reflects the large increase in testing of the workers in the dormitory), many people expect more severe restrictions to follow. They expect a total lockdown.

I don't know what is a total lockdown, compared to what we already have now. Some body said - cannot go out and buy food. Better to stock up on food now. Another round of panic?

I also expect more severe restrictions, not because they are necessary, but because I expect the ministerial task force to over-react also. They also can't tell the difference between 105 deaths and 2 deaths per million, reflecting the poor quality of their leadership.

I don't know if the ministers realize that the increase is new cases is largely due to increased testing of the workers in the dormitory, rather than an actual increase in the transmission of the disease. If they did, why not state it in their daily news to the people?

Perhaps they think that it is safer to join the international band wagon, even though common sense dictate that our level of risk is very much lower.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2861

Contact tracing using an app

I downloaded the TraceTogether developed by GovTech. I used it for a day. I gave up and deleted the app.

I do not like the approach. It consumed too much battery by running Bluetooth to scan for nearby mobile phones. It did not provide any feedback to me on whether there were any data that were captured.

I find the Safe Paths app that is being developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to have most promise.

It is described here
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2857

Compulsory to wear a mask

I went out on 16 April for 90 minutes walk wearing a mask. It was uncomfortable. I found it difficult to breath.

My friend said that the latest regulation allows a person to go out without a mask for brisk walking exercise.

I was aware of the latest change. Why did I wear the mask?

Here is the sequence of events:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2856

728 new cases on 16 April 2020

Wow! 728 new cases for April 16. It does not suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly. It is the result of comprehensive testing of the workers in the dormitories. The virus has already spread earlier and is now discovered by the testing.

In America, 20% of those tested are found to be positive for the virus.

In Singapore, the infected cases represent 6% of those tested (4427 out of 72680, according to WHO statistics).

If we carry out comprehensive testing of the general population, I expect to find that 6% would also have been infected, but many of these cases were not identified because the infections were mild.

Will MOH release the statistics of how many people were tested for the virus, how many were found positive and how many had symptoms? This information is important to understand what is really happening.

The absence of this information will will cause panic among the general population and lead to stronger reaction, such as more drastic lockdown measures. Is it really necessary?

So far, the death rate for the coronavirus is 2 per million of population. It is extremely low in Singapore, compared to 86 in America and over 100 in some European countries.

In contrast, the death rate in Singapore from all causes is 3,500 per million. We should not over-react when 2 die from coronavirus. There are another 3,498 people who die from other causes.

Of course, people are scared that the virus can spread more widely in the general population. They imagine that it could increase by 100 or 1,000 folds. That fear is exaggerated and unfounded.

Even if there are more people in the general population that gets infected, most of the cases are likely to be mild.

We only need to worry if there are more people that need to be placed in intensive care and the death rate increase to 20 per million, i.e. 10 times of the current rate.

I am not suggesting that we do nothing until it reaches 20. We do what is necessary if the number does increase rapidly from the current 2 per million, but we should not plan on the basis that it will become 20 or 200. Not yet.

I still call on the people, and more especially, the ministerial task force, to look at the figures in the perspective that I have suggested, and to take rational decisions on what needs to be done.

Tan Kin Lian

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2855

Death rate from covid-19 is low in Singapore

Here are the death rates from covid-19 per million of population

World: 17.3
Spain 402
Italy 358
France 263
UK 190
Sweden 119
USA 86
Iran 57
Germany 45
Canada 27
Turkey 18
Israel 15
South Korea 4
Malaysia 3
Singapore 2
Indonesia 2
Australia 2
China 2

The death rate is low in hot climate (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Indonesia) and countries with better control (China, South Korea).

Although the cases and deaths have increased in Singapore during the past week, the death rate is low relative to other countries.

Tan Kin Lian

Carry out a sample test of the general population

The increase in infected cases under covid-19 is alarming in recent days. We are seeing the new cases numbering several hundreds each day, compared to an average of 50 cases previously.

The figures may seem alarming, and may suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly.

However, there is another angle that may be overlooked.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2849

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What should be done about the worker dormitories?
2. Should we continue to use foreign workers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Close down workplaces

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents support the move to close down workplaces in Singapore during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1943

WOTC - Control food prices

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the respondents prefer the government to set controlled prices for essential items to control food prices during a pandemic. 31% prefer the government to issue coupons to families to buy a fixed quantity at fixed prices.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1942

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Which is the biggest blunder by the ministerial task force on covid-19?

2. Is it appropriate to make wearing of face mask in public mandatory?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Spanish Flu

Wisdom of the Crowd: 34% of the respondents said that the Spanish flu received its name because it caused most deaths in Spain. The other respondents cited other reasons.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1941

WOTC - America's response to Covid-19

Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents said that America failed to act early to deal with the corona virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1940

Good judgment by Goh Meng Seng

In early January, Goh Meng Seng was asking people in Singapore to wear mask. He said that this measure was important to stop the spread of the virus. He uploaded his photo with a face mask and used it actively in his social medias.

I disagreed with Meng Seng at that time. I held the view that it was not necessary to wear a mask as the climate in Singapore was warm, unlike China or South Korea, and the spread of infection was low here. However, I did not want to contradict Meng Seng on this issue publicly. I did not support his stand at that time.

Some of his detractors said, on social media, that Meng Seng was politicizing the issue. I know Meng Seng well. He was sincere in his beliefs and views generally. In this instance, he must have sincerely felt that it was advisable for people to wear a mask when they are out in public. He was not using the opportunity to gain any political advantage.

As matters turn out, Meng Seng's judgment was right. As the spread of infection increased, it became advisable and necessary for the general public to wear a mask. It was clear that he had better judgment than the ministers in the ministerial task force.

My own view on this matter changed about two weeks ago, when the ministerial task force implemented compulsory social distancing. Using common sense, I concluded that time had come to use a face mask. It does not make sense to have social distancing in food outlets and malls, and yet allow people to be packed in crowded buses and trains together any protection. The journey that usually last more than half an hour.

So I started to wear a face mask in a crowded bus or train or other crowded place.

Finally, and perhaps somewhat late, the ministerial task force decided to make it compulsory for everyone to wear a mask when they are out of their house. As usual, that sudden and hasty decision was accompanied with threats of heavy fines for non-observance.

I hope that the ministers realize that many people have only one mask, or none at all, and that the mask has to be washed and dried after each use. It is also uncomfortable to wear in the mask in our hot climate, especially if they have to spend more than an hour to walk to the supermarket or market and to stand in the queue before being admitted.

Nevertheless, I am sure that the people will find a way to get out of this problem, even if the ministers overlooked it.

I hope that the ministerial task force will listen to practical people on the ground, like Goh Meng Seng and others, in making their decisions to deal with a difficult and changing problem. The people in the ministers' inner circle are in groupthink and may not have to courage to think outside of the box.

Tan Kin Lian

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2845

Improve the online process for applying for a passport

The online process to apply for a passport is actually quite easy. The applicant only needs to confirm the particulars (which were already available in the ICA records) and to upload a photo (according to the required specs). It should take just five minutes, for a person who is familiar with the process.

But it took me several hours on three occasions. The first two were aborted attempts.

What were the problems that I encountered?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2844

A large investment in Tesla

I hold 500 shares in Tesla at an average cost of USD 605. At its worst point, when Tesla was at $360 on 18 March, I suffered a paper loss of S$170,000. I held on to the shares, as I was confident about the future for Tesla.

The share price recovered during the past four weeks. Last night, it closed at $650. From a paper loss, I now see a paper profit of S$32,000. Wow! It is a turnaround of S$200,000!

Tesla is my largest investment. It is an exception - in terms of the amount that I invest in any one share. I usually prefer to spread my investment in many shares - under the principle of diversification.

I am quite familiar with this company, and have watched many videos from analysts and the general public tracing the prospects for this leading manufacturer of electric cars.

Increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore

There is a large increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore during the past week. The latest figure was 386 cases for 13 April 2020. Before the recent upsurge, the average daily cases was around 50.

Most of the new cases were from foreign workers living in dormitories. One third of these cases could not be traced - giving alarm that it could indicate the extent of the community spread.

I wish to give my views on these issues.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2840

Helping people who suffer a loss of income

I wish to explain the merits and challenges of various ways to help people who suffer a loss of income during an economic downturn.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2839

WOTC - Should the govt bail out Singapore Airlines?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 57% of the respondents said that Singapore Airlines should be assisted by the government. 43% said that taxpayer's money should not be used to assist this company.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1939

WOTC - Helping people who suffer a loss of income

The respondents voted for the following choice to help people who suffer a loss of income - introduce an unemployment insurance (37%), allow them to take a soft loan (28%), give them money to meet essential expenses (28%).

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1938

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Will you use Zoom for teleconferencing?
2. Which teleconferencing platform do you prefer?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. How is home learning for the students

2. How is working at home?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Problem faced by Singapore Airlines

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents said that the main cause of the problem faced by Singapore Airlines is the covid-19 pandemic and the suspension of international flights. the other respondents blamed their fuel hedging practice which caused a large part of the loss.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1936

WOTC - Fuel hedging by airline

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the participants said that an airline should hedge its fuel cost up to two years ahead. 50% said that it should hedge its fuel cost up to six months ahead.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1937

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. How do you rate the performance of the ministerial task force on covid-19?

2. If a general election is called by June, who will you vote for?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Abuse of Temporary Relief Fund

The government implemented the Temporary Relief Fund to give a payment of $500 to lower to middle income citizens and permanent residents who face financial difficulty due to income loss caused by the covid-19 crisis. Details here. 

Two problems arose from this scheme:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2832