Thursday, April 16, 2020

Carry out a sample test of the general population

The increase in infected cases under covid-19 is alarming in recent days. We are seeing the new cases numbering several hundreds each day, compared to an average of 50 cases previously.

The figures may seem alarming, and may suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly.

However, there is another angle that may be overlooked.
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Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues


1. What should be done about the worker dormitories?
2. Should we continue to use foreign workers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Close down workplaces

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents support the move to close down workplaces in Singapore during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1943

WOTC - Control food prices

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the respondents prefer the government to set controlled prices for essential items to control food prices during a pandemic. 31% prefer the government to issue coupons to families to buy a fixed quantity at fixed prices.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1942

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Which is the biggest blunder by the ministerial task force on covid-19?
2. Is it appropriate to make wearing of face mask in public mandatory?
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https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Spanish Flu

Wisdom of the Crowd: 34% of the respondents said that the Spanish flu received its name because it caused most deaths in Spain. The other respondents cited other reasons.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1941

WOTC - America's response to Covid-19

Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents said that America failed to act early to deal with the corona virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1940

Good judgment by Goh Meng Seng

In early January, Goh Meng Seng was asking people in Singapore to wear mask. He said that this measure was important to stop the spread of the virus. He uploaded his photo with a face mask and used it actively in his social medias.

I disagreed with Meng Seng at that time. I held the view that it was not necessary to wear a mask as the climate in Singapore was warm, unlike China or South Korea, and the spread of infection was low here. However, I did not want to contradict Meng Seng on this issue publicly. I did not support his stand at that time.

Some of his detractors said, on social media, that Meng Seng was politicizing the issue. I know Meng Seng well. He was sincere in his beliefs and views generally. In this instance, he must have sincerely felt that it was advisable for people to wear a mask when they are out in public. He was not using the opportunity to gain any political advantage.

As matters turn out, Meng Seng's judgment was right. As the spread of infection increased, it became advisable and necessary for the general public to wear a mask. It was clear that he had better judgment than the ministers in the ministerial task force.

My own view on this matter changed about two weeks ago, when the ministerial task force implemented compulsory social distancing. Using common sense, I concluded that time had come to use a face mask. It does not make sense to have social distancing in food outlets and malls, and yet allow people to be packed in crowded buses and trains together any protection. The journey that usually last more than half an hour.

So I started to wear a face mask in a crowded bus or train or other crowded place.

Finally, and perhaps somewhat late, the ministerial task force decided to make it compulsory for everyone to wear a mask when they are out of their house. As usual, that sudden and hasty decision was accompanied with threats of heavy fines for non-observance.

I hope that the ministers realize that many people have only one mask, or none at all, and that the mask has to be washed and dried after each use. It is also uncomfortable to wear in the mask in our hot climate, especially if they have to spend more than an hour to walk to the supermarket or market and to stand in the queue before being admitted.

Nevertheless, I am sure that the people will find a way to get out of this problem, even if the ministers overlooked it.

I hope that the ministerial task force will listen to practical people on the ground, like Goh Meng Seng and others, in making their decisions to deal with a difficult and changing problem. The people in the ministers' inner circle are in groupthink and may not have to courage to think outside of the box.

Tan Kin Lian

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Improve the online process for applying for a passport

The online process to apply for a passport is actually quite easy. The applicant only needs to confirm the particulars (which were already available in the ICA records) and to upload a photo (according to the required specs). It should take just five minutes, for a person who is familiar with the process.

But it took me several hours on three occasions. The first two were aborted attempts.

What were the problems that I encountered?
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Tuesday, April 14, 2020

A large investment in Tesla

I hold 500 shares in Tesla at an average cost of USD 605. At its worst point, when Tesla was at $360 on 18 March, I suffered a paper loss of S$170,000. I held on to the shares, as I was confident about the future for Tesla.

The share price recovered during the past four weeks. Last night, it closed at $650. From a paper loss, I now see a paper profit of S$32,000. Wow! It is a turnaround of S$200,000!

Tesla is my largest investment. It is an exception - in terms of the amount that I invest in any one share. I usually prefer to spread my investment in many shares - under the principle of diversification.

I am quite familiar with this company, and have watched many videos from analysts and the general public tracing the prospects for this leading manufacturer of electric cars.

Increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore

There is a large increase in covid-19 cases in Singapore during the past week. The latest figure was 386 cases for 13 April 2020. Before the recent upsurge, the average daily cases was around 50.

Most of the new cases were from foreign workers living in dormitories. One third of these cases could not be traced - giving alarm that it could indicate the extent of the community spread.

I wish to give my views on these issues.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2840

Helping people who suffer a loss of income

I wish to explain the merits and challenges of various ways to help people who suffer a loss of income during an economic downturn.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2839

WOTC - Should the govt bail out Singapore Airlines?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 57% of the respondents said that Singapore Airlines should be assisted by the government. 43% said that taxpayer's money should not be used to assist this company.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1939

WOTC - Helping people who suffer a loss of income

The respondents voted for the following choice to help people who suffer a loss of income - introduce an unemployment insurance (37%), allow them to take a soft loan (28%), give them money to meet essential expenses (28%).

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1938

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues


1. Will you use Zoom for teleconferencing?
2. Which teleconferencing platform do you prefer?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Sunday, April 12, 2020

WOTC - Problem faced by Singapore Airlines

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents said that the main cause of the problem faced by Singapore Airlines is the covid-19 pandemic and the suspension of international flights. the other respondents blamed their fuel hedging practice which caused a large part of the loss.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1936

WOTC - Fuel hedging by airline

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the participants said that an airline should hedge its fuel cost up to two years ahead. 50% said that it should hedge its fuel cost up to six months ahead.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1937

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. How do you rate the performance of the ministerial task force on covid-19?
2. If a general election is called by June, who will you vote for?
Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Abuse of Temporary Relief Fund

The government implemented the Temporary Relief Fund to give a payment of $500 to lower to middle income citizens and permanent residents who face financial difficulty due to income loss caused by the covid-19 crisis. Details here. 

Two problems arose from this scheme:

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