Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Listen to the views of the people

In her address to Parliament, President Halimah asked the 4G leaders to listen to the views of the people.

I wonder - is this possible?

Most of them are ex-generals who spent their entire military career giving orders to soldiers below them. The soldiers have to follow orders and not give any views.

Would it be easier to ask a deaf person to listen?

Is it good for Singapore to host the Trump Kim summit?

The media speculates that the Trump Kim summit may be held in Singapore.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it good for Singapore to host the Trump Kim summit?

39% of the respondents said that we do not need this publicity.

28% said that it will put Singapore on the world map.

22% said it will cause trouble for us ahead.

11% said that it will boost tourism.

Positive - 61%. Negative - 39%.

See the chart and breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=618

North Korea's nuclear program

The leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, recently announced that North Korea will give up its nuclear program. It was unexpected.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Why does Kim Jong Un decide to give up his nuclear programme?

49% of the respondents said that he was not able to sustain the program.

24% said that he has now consolidated his power and can take a new path.

14% said that he has already developed his nuclear weapons.

12% said he wanted to bring peace and prosperity to North Korea.

See the pie chart and breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=619

Next prime minister of Malaysia

Malaysia is holding its general election on May 9.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Who do you prefer to be the next prime minister of Malaysia

Here are the votes:

Dr Mahathir - 43%
Anwar Ibrahim - 31%
Wan Azizah - 17%
Najib Razak - 9%

See the pie chart and breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=620

Monday, May 07, 2018

Rental of hawker stalls

I spoke to a hawker stall operator in Bishan North Food Center. He operates half a stall and pays a rental of $5,000 a month. This means $10,000 for a full size stall.

I searched the rental rate for a hawker stall during the 1970s. I was surprised. The subsidised rental was $200 a month. For a non-subsidised, it was $1,250 a month.

See this report
https://www.mti.gov.sg/…/Economic-Survey-of-Sin…/FA_1Q15.pdf

Sure, 40 years have passed. If we factor in an increase of 2% p.a. the rental should go up 2.2 times.

So, the rental in 2018 should be $450 for a subsidised stall and $2,750 for a non-subsidised stall.

The current rental of $10,000 reflects the "rentier capitalism" that is operated by Lee HL. The difference goes to the government and to the middleman.

This is really very sad. We have to vote for a change in the government. This is the only way to change a bad government policy.

No need to get a degree?

The ministers are now saying that there is no need for people to get a degree.

Their statements are greeted with derision and disbelief by the public. Most people say that employers look for candidates with a degree.

We are talking about different situations.

There are many jobs that require a degree. If you wish to go for these jobs, go and get a degree. Better still, get a degree from a good university. Many employers do not accept a degree from a private university that they consider to be below standard.

Remember. These jobs are highly competitive. There is only a limited supply of these jobs. If there are too many graduates applying for these jobs, your chance of getting the job will be slim, if you do not have a good degree from a good university.

There are many other jobs that do not require a degree. These jobs require skills and work experience. These are jobs in the service industry, such as hotels, restaurants, tourism, hospital, nursing homes, pre-school education, etc.

If you do not have the skill and work experience, you will not get these jobs.

If you are not academically strong, you should look for these non graduate jobs and work to get the skills and experience. You can still continue your study on a part time basis.

Many people overlook the fact that it takes three to four years to get a degree. This is the time that can be spent to get skills and work experience. Time is precious. If you spend your time on a degree, it has to be at the expense of skills and work experience, especially in the critical initial years.

The people in the western countries have a better and more practical approach. Many of them come out to work and get the skills and work experience. They still have the choice of going for full time study and get a degree, if it is more suitable for them.

If they wish to continue in a non-graduate job, they can still continue their education on a part time basis. It is the best of both worlds.

There is a change in government policy that can help people to make this switch. They have to get the employers to pay more for the non-graudate jobs.

The government can set a good example by paying more for the non-graduate jobs in the public sector. This will set the benchmark for the private employers.

The private employers will still want to employ foreign workers to reduce their cost. They cannot afford to pay high wages for the non-graduate jobs, as their business is struggling to survive.

The government should give a wage subsidy to the private employers when they employ locals to take up these jobs. With better wages, more locals will be willing to take up these jobs. The private employers can afford to pay the higher wages, when they get a subsidy.

In the western countries, the difference in pay for a graduate and a skilled worker is about 10%. The gap is not 50%, which is quite common in Singapore.

I wish to add a final word that it is the low wage, and not the prestige, that makes people avoid the non-graduate jobs.

Many people are willing to work as taxi drivers and private hire drivers, right? Even graduates are willing to take up these jobs, right?

Why? Because they can earn a good income, even though it is not an office job or a prestigious job. Yes, the earnings make the difference.

If the government wishes to get a better balance in the work force and distribute the workers more evenly between the graduate and non-graduate jobs, they have to address the root cause of this mismatch. Agree?

Tan Kin Lian

Should the polar bear Inuka be put to sleep?

Recently, the Singapore Zoo put the polar bear Inuka to sleep for "humane reasons". Is this the real reason?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should the Zoo put the polar bear Inuka to sleep?

43% of the respondents said that the Zoo should have treated him and let him die from old age.

37% said it is a humane way to relieve him of his pain.

20% said the Zoo was finding an excuse to cut down the cost of his upkeep.

You can view the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=616

Should euthanasia be allowed in Singapore?

The polar bear Inuka was put to sleep as a humane way to relieve him of his pain. Should this option be given to humans?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should euthansia be allowed?

36% of the respondents said that it should be allowed after going through safeguards.

36% said that a person should be allowed to depart through euthanasia rather than commit suicide.

27% said that it should be banned for two reasons.

See the pie chart of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=617

Sunday, May 06, 2018

Jobs for Singaporeans

Dear Sir,
I have watch the youtube video of the speech on behalf of Singaporeans. Ut good that you have highlight to the Singaporeans,why the government are not doing something to help the citizen.

I belong to PMET which it hard to get job, I went to the seek help to from the repective department .And they advice me to upgrade or switch Career,

I take the advice to switch career and even take up course in HealthCare . I graduate certificate issued by WDA, I apply for job in Healthcare and was call up for interview, during the interview, the interviewer know my age 58 are not keen to take me, from their body language i can see that the interviewer giving excuse and mention i have no healthcare expericence and i not from the particular school which they are looking for.

As what i see the healthcare sector are looking for employee yet the mindest is not change where can singaporean get job.

The above share you what i this healthcare sector.

REPLY
There is demand in the health care sector.
Don't give up.
Try to apply for a few more jobs.
I hope that you will become successful.

Direct your anger against the PIP

Rachel Ash said:
Mr Tan.
As much as many do not want the Chinese Nationals to step foot on their own shores BUT they greed for their economic dollars. Logically, there are billions of Chinese and just how many native Singaporeans are there today, the immigration/tourist impact of the former can be clearly seen.
I wondered why citizens are so focal against foreign nationals. The foreign nationals cannot sneaking in to Singapore without being caught (sneaking out is OK by our authorities - eg Mas Selamat but the only requirement is the use of empty plastic water bottles).
Then how did they come in invading all strata of our society. Taking away our bus driver's job, retail sales job including the service industry.
Many would be surprise by the number of new Chinese members in SICC. Don't believe just go on weekends and see for oneself.
These foreign nationals can only COME in either as visitors or permanent residents or new citizens BECAUSE our authorities allow them to come in with wide open arms.
So it is time to stop punishing the foreign nationals BUT instead direct your anger to authorities.

REPLY
OK. I will direct my anger against the PIP (people in power). They are not doing their job to take care of the citizens of Singapore.

A bad development

When I moved into Cactus Crescent, there was a row of shop houses and coffee shops at the junction of Cactus Road. The eating houses were popular. They served the nearby community.

The shop houses and residential flats were sold enbloc and torn down for redevelopment. The new project took five years to complete. During this time, the neighborhood were deprived of the coffee shops and convenience store.

The new project, called Flora Vista, was completed last October. It had 30 shop units.

After 8 months, only 3 shop units were operational (apart from a pre-school). These are a cafe, Indian restaurant and a small convenience store. About 15 units are still vacant. The preschool occupied about 10 units.

The commercial facilities are inadequate for the neighborhood.

Has the qualify of life improved for the neighborhood? No, it has not. But the cost has increased sharply. Due to inefficiency and poor planning, we are getting more expensive and less useful.

Welcome to Singapore.




Working on short term passes

My friend bought a landed terrace house in a double gated community in Johor Bahru. It was half empty a few years after completion.

Recently, he saw several of the houses tenanted out. The occupants were young people from China who came to Malaysia to work in e-commerce. Many young people occupy one house.

He suspect that they are on social visit pass and work without permit. They might work renew the pass a few times, and then return to China. The next batch of young people can come to work in Malaysia.

This is the modern way of working overseas.

I suspect that many foreigners re working in Singapore in a similar fashion. They are probably working here while on social visit or student pass.

Karl Max 200th anniversary

China can be a positive example of what Marxism can do to uplift the lives of the people. It is a better alternative to capitalism.

TKL's view:
Capitalism - selfish, greed, wide income gap.
Marxism - society, solidarity, fraternity, welfare of the people

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1100708.shtml

Engineer support

The people in power accused Thum PJ of engineering support for himself.
Hey, what is wrong with this action?
We all have to engineer support for your point of view, right?
If we are dumb, who will know about our views?
is the right to engineer support only available to certain people in power?
These people already have the advantage of the mainstream media to speak out their point of view - do they want to exclude other people totally from voicing alternative views?






Should CPF members be allowed to withdraw their savings at 55

For a few years, many members have asked for the right to withdraw their CPF savings at age 55.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should members be allowed to withdraw all their CPF savings at 55?

50% of the respondents said yes, that was what was promised to them at the start.

27% said that they should be given the option to withdraw all their savings at 65, if they wish to.

13% said that they should be allowed to take out 50% of their savings at age 65.

10% said that they should be required to set aside a minimum sum to be taken out in installments.

See the pie chart at
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=613

Is Medisave a good scheme?

Medisave was introduced in April 1984. It required CPF members to set aside a part of their savings that can be used only for medical expenses.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is Medisave a good scheme?

44% said no, basic medical expenses should be paid out of taxation and not personal savings.

27% said yes, it allows CPF members to use their savings to pay eligible medical expenses.

18% said no, it has led to the Medisave savings being spent wastefully.

11% said the CPF savings should be reduced and people should pay their medical expenses using cash.

A total of 73% consdier that the Medisave is not a good scheme.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=614

Ensure minorities are represented in Parliament

Singapore introduced the GRC system to ensure that minorities will be adequately represented in Parliament.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - How can our system ensure that minorities will be better represented in Parliament?

42% of the respondents said it is better to revert to single member constituencies and allow minorities to be appointed as nominated MPs, if they are not adequately represented.

42% said there is no need to ensure minority representation in Parliament as there is mutual respect among all the ethnic groups.

9% said allow the minorities to elected non-constituency MPs directly.

7% said that it is best done through the GRC system.

A total of 93% said that the GRC system is not a good system to ensure minority representation.

See the chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=615

Saturday, May 05, 2018

Chan Chun Sing's "open door" policy

Chan Chun Sing said that Singapore must keep doors open to talents.

"https://www.todayonline.com/…/keeping-doors-open-talent-rea…

I do not argue against this statement. But I cannot understand why the government want to give foreigners, or the so called "talent" an advantage over the local PMETs.

What are these advantages given to the "talents" who now work in Singapore under E Pass? Many locals have been retrenched and replaced by these "talents".

What can be done to allow these "talents" to work in Singapore under CCS "open door" policy and remove the disadvantages now faced by our locals?

I talked on this points in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxjarpg7e-o&t=17s

Do you agree with my points?

Funding of activities by foreign entities

Is it good for the government to pass laws to restrict foreigners from funding activities and, as a result, meddle in our local politics?

I wish to share my views here.
http://www.tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx…

Should employers pay a levy for Employment Pass holders?

At present, employers are not required to pay a levy for employing a foreigner who hold an Employee Pass or E Pass. They are deemed to be "foreign talents" that are needed by our economy. However, these E Pass holders cause our PMETs to lose their jobs, because employers find them to be cheaper to employ.

I ask this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should employers pay a levy for Employment Pass holders?

67% of the respondents say that the employer should pay a levy at a rate higher than the levy for S Pass holders.

14% said the levy should be the same as for S Pass holders.

14% said that there should be no levy as we want to attract them to work in Singapore.

4% said that we are barred by trade agreements from imposing this levy.

See the pie chart of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=611

Is a new HDB flat a good investment?

Many owners are now dismayed that the HDB flat is a depreciating asset and will have no value at the end of the lease.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is a new HDB flat a good investment?

35% of the respondents said that it will be a poor investment after 40 years.

24% said that it provides a reasonable return and a place to live in.

22% said that it is a depreciating asset.

18% said that it will be a good investment for the first 30 years after factoring in the government grant.

On the whole, the respondents held a negative view about investing in a HDB flat.

See the pie chart of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=612

Friday, May 04, 2018

Freehold and leasehold property

Many people think that a leasehold property will have no value when the lease runs out and a freehold property will have a value forever. They are willing to pay much more for a freehold property, compared to a leasehold property.

Are they making the right decision?

Here is the answer
http://www.tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx…

Should public sector jobs be reserved for locals?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should public sector jobs be reserved for locals only?

44% of the respondents said that locals can provide better service in the public sector jobs because they know the local languages and culture.

34% said that we need these jobs to be reserved for locals; otherwise there is no certainty of jobs for locals.

16% said that we have to raise wages so that locals will take up these jobs.

6% said that we need flexibility to employ foreigners for the jobs that locals do not want.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=609

Is the GRC system good for Singapore?

Singapore has the Group Representation Constituency (GRC) system since 1988.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is the GRC system good for Singapore?

69% of the respondents said that it allowed weak and arrogant candidates from the PAP to be elected.

20% said that it has caused a disconnect between the people and their Member of Parliament.

The remaining 10% said that allowed candidates from the minority groups to be elected and has worked well for Singapore.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=610

Thursday, May 03, 2018

Recent change in cabinet

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is your impression of the change in the cabinet announced on 24 April 18?

71% of the respondents said that the quality of minister continue to diminish.

20% said they were disappointed as the same faces were appearing in the cabinet.

10% were positive.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=607

Who will win the 14th General Election in Malaysia?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Who will win the 14th general election in Malaysia?

57% of the respondents said that Barisan National will win by a small margin.

21% said that Pakatan Harapan will win by a small margin.

The remaining 21% expect one alliance or the other to win by a large margin.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=608

Ministers sent to run the NTUC

Recently, the prime minister sent Ng Chee Meng and Koh Poh Koon to run the NTUC.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it a good idea for the government to send their ministers to run the NTUC?

48% of the respondents said it will weaken the leadership of the trade unions in fighting for the rights of workers.

42% said that the workers will lose out in the long run.

The remaining 10% view this move as beneficial to the workers in the long run.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=605

Post feedback to large organizations

Many people write to give their feedback in the newspapers. However, the newspapers can only print a small number of letters.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it useful to have an app that allows people to post feedback to large organizations?

44% of the respondents said it is an alternative to writing to the newspapers which are hardly published.

26% said it will be interesting to read these feedback.

16% said it will attract many contributions.

14% said few people will be interested to contribute or read the feedback.

See the pie chart in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=606

ISEAS Talk - 14th General Election in Malaysia

I attended a full day talk conducted by ISEAS on the general election in Malaysia.

Here are my impressions of the presentations.

1. BN has a strong grassroots organisation; they are much better than the other parties.
2. BN still has strong support of the rural Malay vote.
3. They are likely to win Johore and Sarawak.
4. PH is a much weaker alliance compared to the previous election, due to the loss of PAS.
5. Dr. M party will not add much strength to PH, apart from Kedah.
6. The cost of living and GST are big issues.
7. The rural voters are not concerned about 1MDB, corruption and governance.

My assessment is that BN will win the general election. This may change if social media makes a big impact with the rural voters, but this is not likely to happen.

Swing against PAP - to simulate the next general election

I invite you to identify the percentage swing against the PAP that will be caused by each of the various events. I will use the average swing, as submitted by all voters, to compute the results of the next general election.

Previously, the simulation was done with a swing that was estimated by me. In the future, I like to use the average swing that is decided by the voters.

You will also get a prize after you have submitted all the votes. This will be displayed to you immediately.

You need to give your email address to vote (to avoid duplicates) and qualify for the prize.

Give it a try.
http://tklcloud.com/Election/swing.aspx

Monday, April 30, 2018

My prediction for the general election in Malaysia

This is my prediction for the general election in Malaysia.

A key factor influencing the voters is the high cost of living in Malaysia during the recent years. This was caused by the introduciton of GST. It would be bad for Barisan and Najib.

Another factor is that the Malay vote will be split between Umno, Dr. Mahathir and PAS. This might give Harapan the edge.

The ruling government had the advantage of redrawing the boundaries to favor them. And Barisan will be giving handouts.

I think the factors against Barisan will tip the scale. I am looking for a win by Harapan.

What are your views?

Voting for the president

The election of the governor of Jakarta is carried out at two stages.

At the first stage, there are many candidates. The top candidate did not get more than 50% of the votes.

The election then went through the second stage, which is a contest between the top two candidates who got the most votes during the first round.

Many countries adopt this system for voting for their president.

Some countries adopt the "single transferable vote" system or STV. This system is explained here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote

Under this system, the voter votes for several candidates in the order of their choice. If the first choice is not successful, the second choice will be considered. This process will be continued until a winning candidate is found. The method may be complicated but the voting is simple from the perspective of the voter.

Singapore did not have the two stage system or the STV system to elect our president. In 2011, the president was elected with a vote of only 35.2%.

Should e-scooters be banned?

Recently, there were a few accidents involving the use of e-scooters. Some led to serious injuries or deaths.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should e-scooters be banned?

34% of the respondents said - There are too many accidents. The e-scooters should be banned.

30% said - the users should be trained and licensed.

20% said - separate paths should be provided for e-scooters.

16% said - they can use pedestrian paths but they should be careful and sound the bell.

See the pie chart here:
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=601

Where will Trump and Kim meet?

President Trump will be meeting Kim Jong Un of North Korea but the place of the meeting has not been announced yet.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Guess the place where Donald Trump will meet Kim Jong Un

Here are the breakdown of the votes:

China - 25%
South Korea - 23%
Singapore - 23%
Elsewhere in Asia - 23%
Europe - 6%

See the pie chart here:
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=602

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Was the GRC system good for Singapore?

Singapore introduced the group representation constituency (GRC) system in 1988, which was 30 years ago. Was this system for Singapore.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd.

58% of the respondents said that it has caused a lot of harm to Singapore by weakening its governance.

29% said it allowed a new MP to enter Parliament on the coattails of established MPs.

The remaining 13% said that it had two good features - allow minister to be appointed and ensure representation of minorities in Parliament.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=600

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Excellent public transport app

I use the app CityMapper regularly.
I enter the location of my home and workplace.

I often ask for directions on how to get from my current location to my home, work or to "an address somewhere". For the last option, the app displayed the locations that I visited recently.

This is an app designed by someone with common sense.

It shows the buses/trains that I have to take and the arrival time of the next bus. It also shows the journey time.

Along the way, it shows me the stops that I have just passed and the remaining stops to the destination.

It is well designed and easy to use.

When I was in Sydney, the app asked me if I wished to change the City. I agred. It then showed me the public transport for Sydney.

It was excellent.

I remembered that the MyTransport app from the Land Transport Authority was voted the best transport app a few years back. I don't know how they got this rating.

Based on my assessment, the voting would be
MyTransport (LTA) - 2 out of 10
Citymapper - 10 out of 10.

What do you think?

Upper house of Parliament

Many countries struggled with getting the right system of governance.

Singapore adopted the "Elected President" approach. It is unique, as no other country followed this system.

America has a senate where the members are directly elected by the people.

The UK has a House of Lords comprising of people appointed by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister or who inherited their seats.

Canada has a Senate that are appointed by the Governor General on the advice of the Prime Minister.

All systems have their advantages and drawbacks. I prefer the Canada system, although it has its share of controversies.

The reform instituted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is quite good. It will ensure that the Senate play a useful and effective role in commenting on legislation and remove the partisan voting.

This is worth reading.
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/senate/

Should GST be totally abolished?

GST was introduced in Singapore in 1994 at the rate of 3%. Over the years, it has increased to 5% and now 7%. The government announced that it will be increased to 9% in a few years time.

Most people have got used to GST. They asked the government to keep it at 7%.

I disagree. I wanted GST to be totally abolished.

I posted this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should GST be abolished?

58% of the respondents said that GST should be totally abolished as the government had sufficient revenue from other sources. Its abolished will have a major impact in reducing the cost of living.

23% said that we should keep GST but waived it for essential items.

13% said that we should keep GST but reduce the rate to 5% or 3%.

5% said that we should increase GST to 9% to give more money to the goverment to spend on social programs.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=599

What is fake news

I heard a comment that Png EH might not be fielded for the next general election as the candidate for Hougang under the Workers Party. He also said that Png has not been appearing in wakes in the constitutency recently.

I do not believe this "rumor". But I do not consider it as "fake news". The person who told me might have heard it from somebody else, and he did not verify it. I do not think that he "fake" the news out of the blue.

Somebody else could have "fake" the news or made a mistake. Maybe Png was absent from a wake or two due to his schedule.

This is how the rumor mill works. It has been around for decades or centuries. With technology and the use of fake identity, the rumor could travel in the social media quite quickly.

Sometimes, I shared a news that may be untrue. I thought it was true, but did not verify it. It does not cause any problem. Someone will point out the other source and I could delete the post or make a correction.

A few gullible people might have believed it (and I did!). But the "wisdom of the crowd" has a self correcting mechanism.

There is another common incident. I often get an item that appears in my newsfeed. The natural instinct is to believe that this is "current news". Sometimes, it turned out to be old news, so the timing is out of context.

This is easy to correct. Someone would have pointed out that it was "old news". I delete it immediately.

I now pay attention to check the date. But I might still overlook this check.

Sometimes, somone shared an old news without stating that it was dated. Sometimes, the old news appeared automatically by the algorithm of the website, which recycled the old news.

As I considered this context, I think that the effort by the government to legislate against the creation and spread of "deliberate fake news" is difficult.

I also consider that there is value in allowing the free flow of information, including untruths. Let these untruths be sorted out through the process of vetting. The alternative is to allow the rumor mills to continue unabated, even though the social media is silenced.

On balance, it is better to continue with the current situation or status quo, and let the existing laws deal with the matter.

Do you agree?

Friday, April 27, 2018

Allow CPF to be used for shorter HDB leases

Owners of HDB flats with remaining lease less than 60 years find it difficult to sell their flats. The new buyer is not able to get a bank loan or to use CPF to pay for these flats, with a few exceptions.

A possible solution is to allow CPF to be used to pay for HDB flats that are less than 60 years, but longer than 30 years.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should the government allow CPF to be used for leases of at least 30 years?

51% of the respondents supported this move as it would free up the market for old HDB flat. 20% said that all leasehold properties are depleting assets as it is a matter of degree.

A total of 71% support this change in policy.

The remaining 29% are against this change for two reasons - they said that CPF should not be used for a depleting asset and they said that the HDB flat prices should be allowed to drop sharply to attract buyers.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=597

Are most Singaporeans self centered and selfish by nature?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Are most Singaporeans self centered and selfish by nature?

54% of the respondents said that it is difficult to be generous when most Singaporeans have to struggle from day to day.

28% replied that this is definitely the case and it is a bad trait.

16% said that most people are self centered and selfish and that Singaporeans are not worse off.

A total of 98% agreed with this statement but provide some justification for this trait.

Only 2% think that Singaporeans are generous and helpful.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=598

Dilemma of low rental for hawker stalls

During the first 20 years of the PAP government, they provide low rentals for hawker stalls. The stall holders were able to sell their food at low prices and to make a living. It helped to create meaningful employment and lower the cost of living.

Singapore was known to be a place where you could get good and inexpensive food. It was a competitive advantage for Singapore, compared to other countries.

There was a problem. Some stall holders were able to get the stalls at low rentals and they sublet the stalls to the actual operators and kept the profit. The actual operator had to sell the food at a higher price.

Subletting was not allowed under the terms of the rent agreement. The HDB had a difficult time to investigate the illegal subletting and to take back the stalls.

In some cases, the tenant on record claimed that they were employing the people who were running the stall. Sometimes, they said that they were old, and not able to operate the stall successfully.

It was probably this practice of illegal subletting that made the government at that time decide to increase the rentals to the market rate. They did not want the tenant on record to be a middleman and benefit from the cheap rental.

This was a policy mistake. The government should have just allowed the tenant on record to sublet the stall, provided that they make an application and give a valid reason.

Each tenant is allowed to rent only one stall. It is usually given to people who are in financial need, e.g. the elderly poor or families who are not able to get a steady source of income from work.

Many of these tenants will operate the stall on their own. A small percentage will sublet the stall. Let the tenant on record keep the small margin as a source of income that they need.

There is a fear that the practice of subletting, if allowed on a large scale, will lead to high food prices. This is not likely to happen. Subletting is allowed only on application. The number of approvals can be controlled.

The competition in the food center will ensure that the prices remain at a low level. If a stall holder wants to charge a high price, most customers would patronize the other stalls.

When the government decides to open new food centers, they could have adopted the old practice and rent out the stalls to needy operators at low rentals. This would help to moderate prices and provide employment and a source of income to the operators.

Maybe, there is still a chance for the government to take this approach.

What do you think?

Tan Kin Lian

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Standard and specially designed insurance products

There are two types of insurance products. I classify them as follows:

a) Standard products offered by many insurance companies and are competitively priced, e.g. personal accident, motor insurance, property insurance, term insurance (covering deaths)

b) Specially designed products which are unique to an insurance company.

Which product should you buy?
Here are my tips.
http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx…

The art of listening

Many organizations are afraid to get feedback from their customers or the public.

They do not know how to respond to the feedback, which are usually complaints or requests to change their current practices.

Their front line staff are not well trained in dealing with these feedbacks.

Some of the feedbacks could take more than an hour to resolve and may drag on for several days or weeks.

I have a practical advice on how to deal with these feedback.

The staff should be trained to recognize the difference between :

a) Listening to the feedback; clarify and reconfirm what had happened and
b) Responding to the feedbac.

In many cases, the front line staff respond to the feedback before listening and understanding the issue. This usually leads to a lengthy exhange.

I prefer to have a break between the two parts of the process.

I would listen to the feedback, understand the issue and clarify the concern. If it is straightforward, I would respond to the issue immediately.

If it is complicated or if the first response is not accepted, I would take a break. I would respond to the party that I would seek clarification an give a reply later. 

There is also an art in listening, so that it does not take too much time. If the issue is complicated, I will ask the party to send details by email to me. If they write down the issue, they are more likely to put it in a more concise and clearer manner, compared to talking over the telephone.

By adopting this approach, I keep the conversation short so that I can serve the next customer. 

Most customers are happy with this approach. They will appreciate that the front line staff has taken the trouble to listen.

Tan Kin Lian






How long wil President Xi rule China

China has recently changed its constitution to allow its President to serve more than two terms.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - how long will President Xi rule China?

72% of the respondents said that he will rule for another two terms or longer. That will make him run China for more than 20 years.

The other 28% said that he will rule China for one term or until the completion of the One Belt One Road project.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=595

Will will Desmond Kuek go?

Desmond Kuek has resigned from SMRT after serving over 5 years, amidst problems in the train system.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Where do you expect Desmond Kuek to go after leaving SMRT?

71% of the respondents expect him to run another government linked company.

15% expect him to be the permanent secretary of another ministry or a minister in a few years time.

Only 14% expect him to leave government service.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=596

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

A look at the performance of Temasek Holdings

Mr Tan
Another big concern I have for Singapore is Temasek seems to be losing alot of money... it will drastically affect our reserves... I am suspecting this is the reason for the tax hikes.

REPLY
I have not seen evidence that this is the case. Maybe you can read Temasek Holding's annual report and share your findings.

Here is the link to the portfolio performance of Temasek Holdings:
https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/our-financials/portfolio-performance.html

Quote:
Total Shareholder Return
Total Shareholder Return (TSR) is a compounded and annualised measure, which includes dividends paid to our shareholder and excludes capital injections from our shareholder. Our TSR over short, medium, and long time periods are a snapshot of our performance.

As at 31 March 2017, our Singapore dollar one-year TSR was 13.37%. Our three-year TSR was 7.13% and our 10-year TSR was 4%.

Our 20-year TSR was 6%, versus the Singapore 20-year annualised core inflation of under 2%. Longer term 40-year TSR was 15%.

Our TSR is measured against our risk-adjusted cost of capital, which is derived using a capital asset pricing model. The risk-adjusted cost of capital is built bottom-up, and aggregated over all our investments.
Unquote:

COMMENT:
Someone said that the performance of the portfolio is exaggerated by the injection of assets at book value. After these assets are revalued, they showed a large gain, leading to a higher TSR.

I do not know if this is the case. But we have to view the above figures with some sceptism.

Anyway, the 20 year TSR of 6% should be compared with the performance of 9% for the Straits Times Index. In that respect, the performance of TH seems to be lower.

Top funded Startup Tech Companies in Singapore

This is an interesting list of top funded tech companies in Singapore.

https://www.techinasia.com/top-funded-startups-tech-companies-singapore

Encourage customers to return trays

The National Environment Agency wants to encourage patrons to return their trays. They charge a fee for the tray and refund the fee on the return of the tray. This method is getting a lot of negative feedback.

I have seen a better approach that is adopted in Aperia Mall. They have a tray return counter. Many customers return the tray on their own, without the need for any money charge or refund.

They will still employ a cleaner who goes round the table. But the work of the cleaner is reduced by the effort taken by many customers to return the tray voluntarily.

We should avoid imposing a charge and making a refund. The additional work is also costly. This should be avoided.

I hope that the people in charge use common sense in setting the regulations.




Options for HDB flats at end of lease

There is widespread concern that the HDB flat will have no value at the end of the lease. Many owners find this outcome to be a major disappointment.

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What option should the government allow on the expiry of the lease of HDB flat

45% of those who voted said that the government should pay a compensation to the owner for the value of the building.

31% said that the owner should be allowed to extend the lease for 5 or 10 years by payment of a modest premium.

15% said that the owner should be allowed to rent the flat at a subsided rental.

The remaining 10% said that the government should take back the flat without any compensation.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=594

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Depleting value of HDB flats

Will people vote against the PAP due to the depleting value of their HDB flats?

57% of the respondents said that they will vote against the PAP to show their unhappiness. However, of these, 35% said that the loss of votes will not be serious.

The remaining 47% thinks that they will still vote for the PAP due the following reasons:

a) They will vote PAP due to goodies given at the next general election
b) The PAP will change the rules to win their votes
c) They will accept this fact and still vote PAP.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=593

Monday, April 23, 2018

Give your feedback to improve service and working conditions

I am developing a web application called Feedback. I wanted to use the name "Big Ears" but found that it was already used by somebody else.

The Feedback application allows any customer or employee to give feedback to any of 100 organizations in Singapore. These are the organizations that have impact on many people in Singapore e.g. SMRT, Sing Post, hospitals, town councils, government agencies, banks, insurance companies etc.

Any person can view the latest feedbacks submitted by the contributors. They will get a good idea of what is happening in Singapore.

They can see a summary showing the organizations with the most feedbacks and view these feedbacks for the selected organization.

If the specific organization wish to get the contact of the people who submit the feedback, they can request me to create an ID for their staff to login the database. They can contact the contributor to get more information and resolve the issue.

I believe that the feedback will help the organization to improve the service given to its customers.

I also encourage employees to give feedback to the organization on the problems that they face in the daily work. It may be lack of proper tools or difficult work processes. The employees can give the feedback anonymously or give their contacts.

While many organizations have channels for their employees to give feedback, some of these channels may not work well. I hope that this Feedback application can supplement it.

This application will be ready within a week. I hope that you will be able to contribute your feedback.

Any views or suggestions?

Tan Kin Lian






A nasty comment by a nice person

I posted my open letter to the incoming CEO of SMRT in The Independent website. Someone (Mr T). made an unwarranted personal attack on me stating that I lost the Presidential election and my deposit.

I replied that "This is a nasty comment".

Mr. T must have felt hurt. He spend a few exchanges justifying why it was not nasty.

A few of his friends posted that they knew Mr. T and vouched that he was a nice person and was not nasty.

I did not say that Mr. T was nasty. I only said that his comment was nasty.

Many people cannot tell the difference between a nasty comment and a nasty person. Even nice people make nasty comments once in a while.

If Mr. T had made a nasty comment, he should just apologise for being offensive. There is no need to be defensive and justify his "nasty comment". There is no need for his friends to defend him.

I was not able to login to The Independent website to give my replies for a few days. The website owner, whom I knew personallym, said they have technical issues with the website and are trying to fix it.

Unhappy - HDB flats have no value at end of lease

75% of the people who voted in the Wisdom of the Crowd expressed their unhappiness that their HDB flat will have no value at the end of the lease.

Their reasons are:

a) They were misled by the PAP leaders

b) The PAP leaders owe a duty to the HDB owners to preserve the value of their investment

c) They will vote for a new government to find a solution.

Only 25% said that this is what a leasehold is. The HDB owners should accept this legal fact.

See the results here:
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=588

To solve this problem, the government should take these steps:

a) Allow CPF to be used for leases shorter than 60 years, so that buyers can get financing to buy the short leases and give liquidity to the existing owners to cash out.

b) Allow owners to extend their lease by 5 or 10 years at the end of the 99 year lease, provided that the buildings are still in good condition and there are no development plans. The owners will have to pay a premium for the extension of lease, but this can be set at an affordable rate.

I hope that the government will take these steps early, as many owners are now panicking and are selling their old HDB flats at depressed prices.

Do you agree?


Tan Kin Lian

Wasteful spending when town council is changed

It is wasteful to have the town council tied to the party that won the constituency.

When the Workers Party won Aljunied, they merged Hougang and Aljunied. When they won Punggol East, the consituency is merged to form Aljunied, Hougang, Punggol East town council.

When they lost Punggol East, the town council is changed back to Aljunied Hougang.

Imagine the cost of changing all the signs and letterheads and printed materials.

This is not only for the constituencies under the Workers Party. There must be changes within the town councils under the People's Action Party as well, e.g. when they won Punggol East.

In most countries, the election of the town council is done at local level. It is not tied to the party where the MP is elected. In fact, the MPs may change, but the local council remains the same.

Can we stop this wasteful spending of money in Singapore?

WTS - Welcome to Singapore.

Leaders who act on real problems facing the people

I posted a question in the Wisdom of the Crowd to select the most respected ASEAN leader.

62% of the respondents select Joko Widodo of Indonesia and 27% selected Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines.

Why are they popular with Singaporeans?

I guess that these leaders know the problems faced by the people of their country and take concrete actions to deal with them.

I was suprised that President Duterte had a high score, because he is reported in the media to be using tough and dreadful measures against the drug users and peddlars in the country.

It seemed that people understand that the problems are so large that these dreadful measures are needed.

When I visited Manila two years ago, I spoke to a few Filipinos. This was the opinion that they expressed.

Lee HL scored quite poorly. See
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=592

There is a lesson here for our Singapore leaders. The people expect their leaders to know their real problems and to take decision actions to deal with them.

Do you agree?

Open letter in support of Thum Pin Tjin

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is the open letter in support of historian Tham Pin Tjin an embarrassment for the government?

45% of those who responded said - It does not matter. Our reputation has been quite low anyway.

35% said - This open letter will cause damage to the internatal reputation of Singapore.

The remaining 20% are supportive of the government's action.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=589

Attack on chemical facilities in Syria

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Is America, UK and France justified in attacking the chemical facilities of Syria?

30% of the respondents said - The strikes are measured and are not likely to provoke a retaliation from Russia.

30% said - They do not have any evidence that the Syria government used chemical weapons against its people.

27% said - They have to take action against a horrible regime.

14% said - They are commiting an unjustified attack against a sovereign nation.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=590

Votes for World Leaders

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Which world leader do you respect most?

The votes are:
Xi Jing Ping - 55%
Joko Widodo - 22%
Donald Trump - 10%
Theresa May - 3%
Lee Hsien Loong - 2%

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=591

Votes for ASEAN leaders

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Which ASEAN leader do you respect most?

The votes are:
Joko Widodo - 62%
Rodrigo Duterte - 27%
Lee Hsien Loong - 5%
Prayut Chan-ocha - 3%
Hassanah Bolkiah - 2%
Najib Rajak - 0%

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=592

Law against "deliberate fake news"

The government wants to pass legislation to stop "deliberate fake news".

I think that the emphasis should be on "deliberate". They want to make it illegal for people to fabricate news that are untrue and spread them to create trouble.

Does this mean that it is not an offence for someone to spread a untrue news if it was not deliberate, i.e. they were not aware that it was untrue? Are they required to verify the truth of the news before they spread it? Are they required to prove that they were not aware that it was untrue?

This can be a tricky question.

What about jokes and satire? Are they considered as "fake news"?

Suppose I said that PM Lee has three legs. I meant it as a joke. How will it be treated?

Sometimes, we spin a story that is not true. But people reading or listening to it will know that it is meant to be a joke or satire. Will the new law make people avoid expressing their view using this means?

Life will be most boring. Already, we are a boring people, who are not willing to voice any opinion. Do we want them to be even totally silent?

I now like to give my views on "news" that I read in the mainstream or social media.

I apply my common sense. Do I believe in what was said? I will usually not trust it entirely, even if it comes from the government. I know that the government has an agenda to slant the news to make them look good.

If it make sense, I trust it. I also rely on the views of other thinking people before I accept it.

Perhaps we should allow people to develop and use their common sense in dealing with "news" rather than pass a law to decide on what is and is not "fake news".

Do you agree?

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Send SMS before making a call to an unfamiliar person

This is my advice to marketing people, e.g. property agents, insurance agents and others.

If you are calling a potential customer who do not know you, send an SMS first.

Example:
Mr. X. My name is Y from (company). I will call you regarding your (enquiry) at xx pm today. OK?

If the customer is not available at this time, he will reply by SMS and give you an alternative time.

If the customer does not reply, you can call the customer at the stated time. The customer will be expecting your call.

Do not:
Do not call the customer unannoncement. Some will not pick up your call. Others will be annoyed at the unexpected interruption.






HDB flats will have no value at the end of the 99 year lease

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it fair for the HDB flats to be worth nothing at the end of the 99 year lease?

30% of those who responded said - the owners have been misled by the PAP leaders into investing a large sum of money in a HDB flat that will have no value eventually.

25% said - this is what a leasehold is. The owner must accept this legal fact.

24% said - we should vote a new government to find a solution.

21% said - the PAP leaders owe a duty to the HDB owners to preserve the value of their investment.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=588

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Upgrade to cover 40 dread disease

Dear Mr Tan,
I am a owner of the NTUC Living Policy ( LV85) since 1996 . Its contract covers 36 dreaded diseases and permanent diability (PD) provison for up to age 60 years. Today, NTUC has equivalent policy but covers 40 dreaded diseases and PD for age 70 years.

I opine that for my policy to remain relevant as a solution, NTUC should rationalize my contract that I have coverage of 40 dreaded disease and PD for age 70 year. Not withstanding NTUC as a cooperative, it is also a fair act of social responsibility. In fact I expected them to be proactive and to initiate necessary action .

Answer
http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=577&Name=Upgrade-Living-Policy-to-cover-40-dread-diseases&View=A

Invest $500,000 in one bank

Dear Mr.Tan,
Do you think is save to put all my savings abt $500,000 in fixed deposit with Hong Leong Bank. It is a foreign bank wf limited liability.What does limited liability means?

Answer here:
http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx…

Bank misled customer into buying a 8 year saving plan

This housewife will lose $10,000 because she was misled by the bank officer to buy a 8 year saving plan when she intended to place a fixed deposit.

The bank officer did not tell her that it was an insurance policy and she would lose all of her savings if she cannot continue the policy for the second year. She had no income and could not pay the second year premium.

This type of mis-selling is quite common. Why is MAS still allowing the banks to carry on this activity?

Read my details and find out how to avoid this grievous mistake here.

http://www.fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=575&Name=Bank-misled-customer-into-buying-a-8-year-saving-plan&View=A

Hub and spoke system for public transport

I visited my brother in Central Coast, Australia a month ago.

The main town in Central Coast is Gosford. I took a train from Sydney to Gosford. The journey was 2 hours.

From Gosford, I saw the bus routes. There were local buses that serve the nearby towns. It operated like a hub and spoke system, similar to that adopted by airlines.

For airlines, you take a plane from a small airport to a hub. From there, you take an international flight to go to other cities.

I am in favor of a hub and spoke system for our bus services in Singapore. Many cities adopt this system because it is more efficient for the operators and for the passengers.

In Singapore, the hub can be the MRT stations and the bus interchanges. The spokes are the local buses to take passengers from the nearby areas.

If you live near a hub, you can walk there. If not, you can take a local bus to the hub. From there, you can take the MRT or express bus to a stop near my destination.

Under this concept, the express bus stops every 2 km (roughly five bus stops now). The travel time will be reduced considerably.

From the stop, you can walk to my final destination or take a local bus.

I like to see the bus system in Singapore changed as follows:

a) express buses and MRT will connect the hubs.
b) local buses will take pasengers from the nearby areas to the hubs.

Do you like this system?

Worst decision of the PAP

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the worst decision of the PAP in the past two decades?
 
32% of those who voted said - appoint generals to run the country.

18% said - fix the opposition.

18% said - introduce GST resulting in high cost of living

16% said - introduce the GRC system.

16% said - allow property prices to go sky high.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=586

Poor attendance of MPs in Parliament

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What is your reaction when you see poor attendance of MPs in Parliament?

62% of those who voted said - it is shameful to receive a high allowance and neglect their duty.

24% said - MPs should be full time.

9% said - they should be sacked.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=587

Friday, April 20, 2018

The expiring HDB lease

How can we deal with the problem caused by the expiring lease on HDB flats?

We have to recognize that there are many parts to this problem. Let me list two of them:

a) First, some owners who need to sell their old HDB flat with a lease of less than 60 years has found it difficult to find a buyer. The buyer, who is likely to be a young person, is not able to get bank financing to buy the old flat.

b) Second, owners now fear that they have to vacate the flat on expiry of the lease and will not get any compensation. Their total investment in the flat will vanish into thin air.

CANNOT SELL HDB FLAT
The first problem is more urgent. Some owners need to sell their flats now to realize cash to downgrade to a smaller flat or to cover their living expenses.

This problem can be solved by allowing the buyer to use CPF to pay the mortgage for leases of between 30 to 60 years. 30 years is a long time for the new owner.

We need to overcome a mental block. Some people, including the government leaders, think that it is all right for people to buy a 60 year lease because it is long enough to quality as an "investment".

A shorter lease will expire during the lifetime and is "consumption".

This distinction is not valid. All properties have a large component for consumption. It is a matter of degree.

The buyer has to pay a much higher price for a long lease property. Let's say, $300,000. If the same property has a shorter lease, it comes at a lower price, say $200,000.

In both cases, the consumption is $200,000 over the term of the short lease. For the long lease, the consumption is also $200,000 and the investment is $100,000.

The $100,000 that is invested in the property will appreciate over the years. But the same $100,000 invested in equities (or stock market shares) will also get the same return.

My point is that there is no difference in the consumption component between the long and short lease.

I also want to give a warning to all property owners. The property bubble in Singapore has grown too big. It cannot continue to inflate because the earnings of working people cannot sustain a bigger bubble.

The government will be able, hopefully, to stop the bubble from bursting, but you should not count on it growing further. The days of easy money are over!

EXPIRY LEASE
I will now deal with the second problem - the owner has to give up the HDB flat on expiry of the lease.

This problem is not so urgent. It will come in another 40 years time when many leases will expire. Some of the short leases will expiry earlier, but the number is small and the problem is manageable.

When the time comes and large numbers of leases are expiring, the government of the day can offer an extension of the lease by 5 or 10 years at a time.

This can be done, if the flats are still in habitable condition and there are no redevelopment plans.

A premium has to be paid for the extension of the lease. This will not be cheap, but it wil be less costly than buying a new flat - because you do not have to pay for the building.

Furthermore, it can be justified that the premium for lease extension can be kept at a "moderate" price. After all, these are people who bought and paid for the original property.

This is similar to buy a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) for the use of a car for 10 years or to extend it buy 5 or 10 years by paying a premium.

CONCLUSION
The HDB scheme has been successful for the past five decades. It has allowed many owners to make a good capital gain on the sale of their flats which they used to buy a bigger flat or a private property.

This huge appreciation was also made possible on the back of a rising property market, which has become a bubble.

We are now at the watershed. With the leases reaching the magical 60 year mark, many owners find it difficult to sell their flats. There is small demand for the old flats with less than 60 years due to lack of financing.

The problem affects large number of people. The fear that the property bubble may burst adds to the panic. It can be quite catatrophic.

It is urgent for the government to act and address this problem. As a first step, they should reduce qualifying period for use of CPF savings. Currently, the requirement is that the remaining lease should be 60 years. The government needs to revise it to 30 years.

Tan Kin Lian

Why GST should be abolished in Singapore

I read several reports in the social media about the general election in Malaysia.

One key news that keeps being reported is the complaint from voters about the high cost of living in recent years.

Why was there an increase in the cost of living that affects the lives of the ordinary people?

I am sure that the main culprit is the introduction of the GST in Malaysia on 1 April 2015.

Although GST was exempted for essential items, such as food and medicine, it still have a major impact in increasing the cost of living.

The example in Malaysia show clearly that GST is harmful to the economy and to the lives of the ordinary people, even if it is waived for essential items.

GST is a costly and inefficient tax. As many people have pointed out, it is also a regressive tax, as it hits the lower income people the hardest.

It is not the GST itself. We must also add the cost of administration that businesses have to incur. They have to eploy more staff to take care of the GST calculations and accounting to the government. The additional staff cost will be passed on to the ultimate consumers.

We must also not forget the additional profiteering. The businesses will not only add GST and the higher staff cost, but will also take the opportunity to increase their profit margin amidst the confusion.

Now, I come back to Singapore.

For more than a decade, I have written on many occasions that GST is bad for the economy. I now call for GST to be totally abolished in Singapore.

Can Singapore afford to lose the revenue from GST?

Yes. Singapore collects a lot of revenue from land sale. The amount is not reported, but is estimated to be $20 billion a year. This is revenue that most other governments do not have, apart from Hong Kong.

The revenue from GST is $11 billion a year.

The Hong Kong government does not collect GST because they also collect a large revenue from land sale. There is no justification for Singapore to have GST when it also has a lot of revenue from land sale.

If we abolish GST in Singapore, we can bring down the cost of living by about 10%.

Do you agree that GST should be abolished?

Tan Kin Lian




Thursday, April 19, 2018

No need to call a by-election for Marsiling Yew Tee?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Do you agree with the High Court decision that there is no need to call a by-election for Marsiling Yew Tee?

62% of those who voted said that the vacancy should be filled as soon as possible.

32% said that a by-election is needed to fill the vacancy vacated by the MP from the minority race.

This makes a total of 94%. The remaining 6% agree with the decision of the High Court.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=585

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Open letter to Mr. Neo Kian Hong, incoming CEO of SMRT

Dear Mr. Neo,
I congratulate you on your appointment as the next CEO of SMRT.

I wish you success in managing this challenging job. It is difficult but it can be done.

Do not worry too much about the comments of netizens who have already written you off. They said that you did not have any experience in driving a train all your life - how can you manage a train company?

MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE
It may be some comfort to you that the same comment could be levied against me when I took up the job as the top person in NTUC Income exactly 40 years ago. I did not have any experience in running a life insurance company or in managing an agency force, which was the lifeblood of the company.

Fortunately for me, there was no social media at that time to write me off.

As it turned out, I did a fairly good job (if I may say so myself). I was able to build NTUC Income into a large and successful insurance company.

If I may, let me give you three tips that you may find useful for you to face your daunting challenge. The first and second tips are based on my 30 years of experience in facing similar challenges.

FEEDBACK SYSTEM
First, you have to build a good feedback system. In the old days, I had an intranet where the employees and agents were able to give their feedback on what was happening. Often they provided the feedback from the customers. I paid attention to the feedback and made sure that they were attended to.

It was the best way of identifying the real problems that faced my business. What's more, many of the people who provided the feedback were able to offer the solutions.

My task was to use their contribution and make the judgment on what could be done. In many cases, I had to try out the suggestions to see if they could work.

Today, we have the internet. It would be an excellent channel to handle the feedback system.

I know that you may be wary about having to handle several thousand feedback every day. Don't worry. It can be managed. You only need empowered people at two levels to sort out the feedback.

But you have to personally pay attention to some of the feedbacks that are escalated to your level for your personal attention. This is what makes the feedback system works.

MY CONTRIBUTION
In case this sounds "easy to say, hard to do", let me offer the following services to SMRT for free.

I will build the internet website, which I can get ready in two weeks, and manage the feedback process for SMRT.

I only need you to identify the SMRT people who will assist me in handling the feedbacks. Some are customer relations people, but the others are the operational people who can implement some of the suggestions.

I repeat. I am offering the internet system FREE and what's more, my personal time to manage the process. I will do it for at least three months. I will also train a SMRT manager to take over from me.

The feedback can be provided by the public and the staff of SMRT. It will be an open channel for the feedback.

I can stake my personal reputation that this approach will work. If you do not know or trust me, talk to your chairman, Mr. Seah Moon Meng. He knows me personally.

FEET ON THE GROUND
Second, we need a culture of senior people getting their "feet on the ground".

It will do wonders to have the CEO and top managers of SMRT visit the maintenance teams and see how they work in the early morning.

You and your managers do not have to do it all the time. But you can do it some of the time. Have a coffee with them. They will know that the managers care. More importantly, they will also know that they cannot "skive" and get away with it.

Where do you visit? The feedback system will give you the clues on where your managers and you should be visiting.

Do not prepare these visits in advance. Just drop it. It will build a new "work culture".

DEAL WITH MRT BREAKDOWN
Third, I have some common sense suggestions on how to deal with the issues that SMRT face daily, i.e. the delays and breakdowns. I believe that they are largely caused by the complicated Thales signal system.

Actually, you do not need a complicated signal system. It is not difficult to operate a MRT system. Each line is dedicated to the trains running on that line. You do not get trains on several lines merging into one line.

The trains on each line are about 2 km apart, based on an average speed of 60 kph and an average interval of 2 minutes between the trains.

This system can be run entirely using people, i.e. train drivers. The driver can stop the train at each station, open the train and platform doors and, after a minute, start the train to proceed towards the next station. It is easier than driving a bus on a congested road.

There is really no need to rely on a complicated signal that gives signal faults now and then.

If you want to be safe and avoid a train collision, you can install a collision avoidance device at both ends of the train. This will detect a train or obstacle ahead and stop the train to avoid a collision.

This type of device is already installed on many cars. They should be effective and inexpensive.

I am aware that SMRT or the Land Transport Authority have already spent $195 million installing the Thales signal system on two NS and EW lines. As this money has already been spent, we should continue to use the Thales system. However, when there is a signal problem, we can switch immediately to manual operations. It should be all right.

CONCLUSION
I am aware that I might be over-simplying the problems. Engineering may be different from finance. I agree.

However, my 30 years of experience tell me that the key elements of problem solving is the same.

You have to identify the problem; you have to understand what the problem really is. After that, you have get the technical experts to provide the options. As the manager in charge, you can take the decision.

Furthermore, many of the decisions will not work as you had expected. Often, you need to fail in order to get information that were not available before. You may have to try a few times before you finally succeed. Right?

I am suggesting a new work culture, one that is more entrepreneurial, more risk taking.

I am not talking about big risks involving people's lives or large sums of money. I am talking about the smaller risks that need to be taken every day. We will learn to use our common sense to distinguish between big and small risks.

Okay. Here is a test of the new culture that you, Mr. Neo, can bring to SMRT.

Will you send an e-mail to me at kinlian@gmail.com or call me at my mobile: 81685845? Will you offer me a cup of coffee and talk to me?

Tan Kin Lian

Will there be "culture issues" in SAF in event of hostility?

Mr. Tan
The outgoing CEO of SMRT spent over 5 years in this position. He employed his kakis, also from SAF, to the key positions. The operations of SMRT got worse during this time. The CEO blamed it on the "work culture".

He did not explain what the problems of "work culture" were.
I have this worry. We spent tens of billions every year on our SAF. In the event of hostilities, can we rely on our soldiers? Will we also face the "work culture" issues?

What has happened in SMRT is a sign that the "work culture" is a big issue. We cannot brush it off as affecting SMRT only. More likely, it affects a big segment of our society.

What are your views?

REPLY

I share your concern. Singapore now faces big challenges and big problems. We need to go to the root of the issues. We have to change the PAP government.

Excessive bank charges

DBS Bank charged me $18 for processing a MEPS payment. The DBS staff explained that this is an electronic payment. She also said that the charge for a FAST payment is $5. If payment is made by GIRO, the fee is $0.20 for each transfer.

These are charges imposed on corporate accounts. Most people with personal accounts pay lower charges.

I asked the DBS staff - why was the customer not notified about the charges when they use the service? She said that these are posted in their website.

I also told the DBS staff that there are many modes of payments in their online website. I do not understand these different modes. I did not expect the charges to differ a lot. In my case, I made a payment of $44 to a supplier using the MEPS service and was charged an exorbitant a fee of $18.

I told her to give this feedback to the management - as the fees are so large, they should notify the customer at the time of using the service. They should not expect the customer to know the details and small print that were posted in their website.

She promised to do so. But I expect that nothing will happen.

My friend told me that if this happened in Austalia, a commission of inquiry will be set up to look into this matter. The commission will probably imposed a big fine on the bank. That is why the bank charges in Australia are at a more reasonable level.

Welcome to Singapore, friends. It is a place where ordinary people are "screwed up" daily by the government and big companies.

Tan Kin Lian








Inefficiency of the postal service

A condo sent out notice calling for an AGM. To comply with the regulation, the notice has to be sent out at least 14 days before the AGM. The managing agent sent out the notice on 4 April under "certificate of posting". This means that Sing Post certified that they received the mail on that day.

By 17 April, many of the owners have not received the AGM booklet yet. It seemed that Sing Post did not deliver the mail within the expected time. It is possible that the mail was delivered to the wrong address. However, as a large number of owners were involved, it is more likely that the mail was not delivered.

I read from other posts that Sing Post had relied on part time workers to deliver the mail. Maybe, they outsourced the work to contractors who engaged these part time workers. It is difficult to rely on contractors and part time workers. The control and supervision is not effective.

I read a story that an outsourced worker destroyed all the mails that were assigned to him for delivery. He found it easier to destroy the mail rather than deliver them.

To add to the problem, many flats and apartments have installed measures to deter the insertion of mailers and flyers into the letter boxes. This might have made it more difficult for the postal workers to deliver the mail.

You can ask the questionj - why are we still relying on postal mail, when we have the option of e-mail and other electronic form of communication?

The answer is - the government does noT trust e-mail, due to the posibility of hacking. This has caused the volume of postal mail to increase to an unmanageable level.

The quality and reliability of our postal service has deteriorated significantly over the past years. The privatision of the postal service to a listed company, that operates on a profit driven model, is a bad idea.

The inefficiency of the postal service and the high reliance of postal mail adds to the cost of doing business in Singapore. We are an expensive place to do business. It contributes to our sluggish economic performance.

Singapore is facing a lot of challenges. The government under Lee HL is not aware of these huge problems. We are doomed.

Tan Kin Lian

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

May Day Talk - Jobs for Singaporeans

I have accepted an invitation by Gilbert Goh to give a talk on May Day. I will share more details of this event when it is available.

Here is the outline of my talk.

In a recent survey, I asked participants to indicate the item of greatest concern to them - cost of living, jobs and health care.

They chose jobs.

It makes sense. If you have a job that pays a good wage, you can afford the high cost of living and health care. If you do not have a job, you will face financial distress.

In recent years, many people are worried about their jobs. The older workers are worried about being retrenched. The younger graduates are worried that they may not get a job that pays well.

This problem is compounded by the influx of foreigners. Worse, many people have complained that employers prefer foreigners, rather than locals, due to cost and other factors.

What policies and strategies can the government adopt to ensure that locals are able to get a jobs?

I identified three strategies. I will talk about them at the May Day talk.

You can get a preview of the key points of my talk from this video. But I may modify and update my thinking when I present my talk on May Day.

Happy viewing. It just takes 20 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8_CLCYH85I&t=75s

Please share your views or raise some questions for me to address.







Tan Kin Lian

Should there be a cap on the charges for legal services?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should there be a cap on the charges for legal services?

Of those who voted, 53% said the government should set guidelines on legal fees for standard contracts.

16% said the government should set guidelines on hourly charges for litigation.

16% said let the free market decide on the charges.

16% said the maximum charges should be decided by law.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=582

Should visitors be required to give up their NRIC when they visit an office building?

I asked this question in the wisdom of the crowd - Should visitors be required to give up their NRIC when they visit an office building?

Of those who voted - 67% said that it is unnecessary and wasteful and should be stopped.

13% said it is needed for secruity.

13% said we should continue and create jobs for security guards.

7% said that it is needed in case of a fire, to know who are in the building.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=583

Will Dr. Mahathir win over the Malay votes for the opposition alliance?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Will Dr. Mahathir win over the Malay votes for the opposition alliance?

Of those who voted, 33% said that his appeal to the Malay voted as reduced somewhat as he is no longer the prime minister.

27% said he is well respect among the Malay voters and can attract their votes.

27% said the Malays will continue to support Umno.

13% said he was not well liked by the Malays previously.

A total of 73% said that he would not make a significant impact.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=584

Recognize the consumption component in property ownership

The government has the perception that a short term lease is consumption and a longer term lease is investment. They set a minimum of 60 years lease for the unrestricted use of CPF.

This perception is wrong. All properties have a part for consumption and another part for investment.

For example, if someone buys a property with a lease of 30 years, the purchase price will be consumed within 30 years.

If this person buys a 60 year lease property, he will have to pay a higher price. At the end of 30 years, the value of his property would have dropped, due to the consumption of the property for 30 years.

Suppose the price for a 30 year lease is $180,000 and a 60 year lease is $240,000. The difference is $60,000.

At the end of 30 years, the value of a 30 year lease would have dropped to $0 and for the 30 year lease, it would have dropped to $180,000 for the remaining lease of 30 years would be $180,000. We ignore appreciation in the property values in this calculation.

If he had invested his $60,000 to earn 4% per annum, it accumulate to $194,000.
Hence, in both cases, the property is being consumed at the same rate.

The same argument would apply for a 99 year lease and for a freehold property.

The property with a longer lease or a freehold property cost more than a short lease property.The difference in the purchase price represents the "investment". The underlying amount is the "consumption".

If we assume an average appreciation in property of 2% p.a. he need to earn 6% p.a in alternative investment to be as good as property. This is possible by investing in equities.

If the government recognises this point, there is no need to restrict the use of CPF savings for property with a remaining lease of 60 years or to apply a complicated formula for shorter leases.

They can allow the unrestricted use of CPF with a lease of at least 30 years or even shorter.

Alternatively, the government can reduce the compulsory contribution to CPF and allow the people to use the money in any way that they wish, for example, to rent a property or to buy a short lease.

This is the standard practice in most or all cuontries around the world. There are few countries that have a CPF system that forces the savings to be used to buy properties.

Tan Kin Lian

Note: the figures of $180,000 and $240,000 are quite realistic. They are taken from this table.
https://www.sla.gov.sg/Portals/0/Services/Land%20Lease%20Conditions/DP%20policy%20wef%2031%20Jul%202000.pdf

When the lease on the HDB flat runs out

What happens when the HDB flats runs out of its lease of 99 years? Many of the owners will have to return the flat to the HDB which will return the land to the government. They would have lost the entire investment in the flat, including the use of CPF.

Someone suggested that the government should increase the lease to 150 years. He did not indicate if a premium should be paid to extend the lease by another 50 years.

I wish to suggest that the government consider the following measures:

a) Allow the existing owner to continue to rent the flats at a subsidised rate, provided that the flat is still in habitable condition and there are no immediate plans for redevelopment.

b) Allow the existing owner to renew the lease for another 5 or 10 years at the time. A premium have to be paid but this can be fixed at an affordable sum. This would be similar to buy a COE on a car.

As there is a lot of uncertainty now, it would be useful for the government to announce a policy to allow these options.

Tan Kin Lian

Blog Archive