Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Have you tried the Trace Together app?
2. Should the circuit breaker be extended by another month?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Closure of schools

Wisdom of the Crowd: 61% of the respondents like schools to be closed immediately.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1935

WOTC - Social distancing measures

Wisdom of the Crowd: 46% of the respondents support the social distancing measures. The remainder raised doubts about it.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1934

Are cronies favored?

The recent outbreak of infection in the worker dormitories have raised the following question - who are the owners of the dormitories and are the owners and directors connected to the PAP?

A search of the ACRA records will probably disclose that the owners and directors are former MPs or are members of the grassroots organizations under the Peoples' Association.

How will this be interpreted?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2828

Income relief loan - a working example

I prefer an income relief loan to be given to workers who are retrenched or suffer a drop of income during an economic downturn.

The attached paper shows how the relief loan can work. It is based on a sample of 1,000 workers and is projected over a period of 12 months of the economic downturn.

The total amount required for the relief loan for 1,000 workers is $13 million. If this is computed for 3 million workers (i.e. the workforce in Singapore), the required budget is $39 billion.

This relief loan ensures that all the workers are able to maintain their income at 80% of the level for the past year and that the monthly income is sufficient to meet the living expenses.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2827

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should the govt use mobile phone data for contact tracing?

2. Should living conditions in worker dormitories be improved?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Best way to do contact tracing

Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of the respondents said that the best way of contact tracing is to develop an app to allow the NRIC or QR code to be scanned. 36% prefer that the authority use the mobile phone records to locate contacts.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1933

WOTC - Measures to stop the spread of corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 41% of the respondents said that the best way to stop the spread of the corona virus is to provide more testing. 32% chose social distancing measures.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1932

How to manage the income relief loan

During an economic downturn, such as already happened during the covid-19 pandemic, the government can provide an income relief loan to every worker who is impacted.

I suggest that this relief loan be managed as follows:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2824

Time to wear a face mask

Many people criticized the ministers for stating that there was no need to wear the mask earlier and for now changing their mind.

I do not agree with the criticism.

In the early days, there was no need to wear a mask due to the low rate of infection.

When the infection rate increased, it became necessary to wear a mask.

We should make decisions based on the actual risk and not on some theoretically thinking.

We should also make our decisions based on our actual situation and not on the situations in other countries.

The risk was higher in other countries due to their climate and their rate of infection.

Now that the risk in Singapore has increased to a higher level, it is advisable to wear a mask. It may be compulsory to do so.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2823

How the F&B sector could have been helped

Here are the real problems faced by the food and beverage outlets. Does the three stimulus measures help them? Click here.

It would be difficult for these outlets to operate, in spite of the kind of financial assistance offered by the government.

If the government had adopted the measures that I proposed here, it might be more helpful to the businesses. Click here.

This is how my proposal would work:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2822

Was the government too slow in responding to the crisis

Dear Mr. Tan
Was the government slow and complacent at the early stages and they are now in panic mode and have to implement extreme measures under the 'circuit breaker' ?

TKL REPLY
I hold a different view from most other people. I think that the govt acted too early in declaring code Orange.

I complained that the two measures, namely workplace scanning and manual recording of contact tracing details, were largely useless. The resources should have been used towards other more effective measures.

Even now, when the infection had spread more rapidly, I think that the 'circuit measures' were rather extreme. It comes at a very heavy cost to the economy.

Nevertheless, I hope that it will be effective in getting rid of the corona virus. It will probably require more than one month of lockdown, maybe two months.

If I were in charge, I would not call the 'circuit breaker'. I would find other ways to strengthen the social distancing and containment.

We have to wait and see.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2818

Quora: Will China sell N95 masks to the United States?

Reply by Pin Yang

I am a Chinese exporter of N95 masks for US market for many years.

The answer is ‘Yes, They will’, and ‘No, they cant’.The problem is that US was acting too late, Chinese can not accept new orders with too much order in hand.

Due to strict regulation placed in US, the only acceptable mask that they can sell is N95 certified masks, which only 13 factories can have the certificate to produce it in China. 

UPDATE：08/04/2020 NOW THE CDC FINALLY ACCEPTED KN95 MASKS. Many country responded to covid-19 much earlier than US, so they came to the Chinese factories much earlier and purchased all future productions. For now, new orders will only be accepted in May-July, depending on the factory. On the other hand, normal medical (disposable) masks is not in short in China, people can get as many as they like.

New update, due to raw material price rocketed, the price for N95 masks has risen 10 fold of original. The price are confidential so i can just give you all a rough idea. I just had a US customer declined our quote, they cant rise the sale price due to state regulation of stabilizing market price. I have heard their domestic supply can get half price of what we quote, but i am not sure what was the quantity they can get from the US supplier, just hope they will be fine. Good luck to you all.

I have saw the news of New York hospitals were facing a major overwhelming situation. Probably this will be soon for other states. It is heart breaking. For those people who in need of masks and not price sensitive, i advise you go contact your Chinese friends and ask if they have any Chinese local to get some KN95 masks. Its Chinese equivalent of N95. It can not be sale in US supermarket but it was accepted by CDC to get for personal protection. Slightly overpriced but saves life.

Circuit breaker in Singapore

The measures implemented under the 'circuit breaker' in Singapore are quite extreme. In some ways, it is more serious than a lockdown.

It disallow meeting of people who are not in the same household. It requires all non-essential workplaces to be closed for one month. It imposes stiff penalties for not following the social distancing rules.

Most people think that this is unavoidable, given the spread of the infection in Singapore.

I agree that we need to take measures to contain the spread, but I would prefer to adopt the measures in Taiwan. These measures include:

a) Mandatory wearing of face masks in public
b) Provide hand sanitizers in all public places
c) Provide stations for testing of the corona virus.
d) Community monitoring of the social distancing rules.
e) Use of phone records for contact tracing

I also prefer the temperature scanning to be done at all public places and to stop the manual recording of contact tracing details. Let the resources be diverted to preventive measures to contain the corona virus, such as those adopted in Taiwan.

More importantly, Taiwan did not mandate the closing down of workplaces, which cause a big disruption to the economy.

Never mind. We are now in 'circuit breaker' mode. We should take the next few weeks to implement the measures adopted successfully in Taiwan. Hopefully, they will help to contain the spread and allow the 'circuit breaker' to be disabled on 4 May.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2817

Relief loans for businesses

In a severe economic downturn, many businesses have to reduce their operating expenses to match the loss of revenue. They have to retrench their workers.

I suggest that they should ask all their workers to take partial no-pay leave, e.g. 30% of the working week. The workers will suffer a reduction in their income, but they can apply to the government for a relief loan for the period of the downturn.

The government should also extend to the business a relief loan to cover their rental, payroll and utility expenses. This relief loan is available for the period of the downturn. It will carry a modest interest rate, e.g. pegged to the rate of inflation.

This allows the businesses to continue as before and keep their workers partially employed. It will cause minimal disruption to the businesses and allow them to be ramp up their activities when the upturn returns.

The relief loans can be managed by the banks and are covered by a 100% government guarantee. A reasonable cap can be set to prevent abuses.

With the 100 guarantee, there is no need for the banks to carry out a strict evaluation of the loans.

However, the bank can extend additional loans to cover other expenses, and that can be on commercial terms and be subject to their evaluation.

There will be some abuses, but the extend will be small and they can be managed at a later date. It is important that the relief loans be available quickly and with only modest first level evaluation.

I believe that this approach will be helpful to protect employment and businesses.

Several countries have adopted this approach in granting assistances to businesses affected by the severe economic downturn.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2816

Loan relief scheme to cover loss of income

Most countries prefer to give financial assistance to the unemployed as a benefit.

They face the difficulty of managing the abuse.

I prefer to give them a loan to cover the loss of income. They have to repay the loan in the future, with a modest rate of interest. This will tide them over a period of unemployment, but may be capped for 6 to 12 months.

As this is a loan that needs to be paid back, the abuse is reduced somewhat, but not totally.

In the future, a part of the distress loan can be written off or forgiven, but that can be done at a later date, subject to evaluation.

In the case of Singapore, the loan can be charged against the CPF savings or against a property bought with CPF funds.

This loan facility will be available to all workers, regardless of income level. They are available to the higher income workers as well.

The loans can also be extended to the self employed, including professionals, who suffer a loss of income during an economic downturn. The loss of income can be capped at a level that is appropriate to the occupation or trade.

If all income earners have access to a loan to cover the loss of income, there is no need to extend other types of assistance, such as grants to cover utility, rental, mortgage payments and loan repayments. Life can continue as before. There will be minimal need to monitor against abuses in these other relief schemes.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2815

Stimulus packages face problems

I read about the problems in administering the three stimulus packages introduced by the government to deal with the covid-19 crisis

I quote some examples in this article and suggest a better way to provide the financial assistance that could avoid these problems.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2814

Job support scheme

In his third stimulus budget for 2020, finance minister Heng SK announced that the government will be providing a grant to cover 75% of the payroll for April 2020, i.e. the month that all non-essential workplaces have to be closed due to the circuit breaker. This grant is given on condition that the employer does not put any of the employees on no pay leave or retrench them.

In a webinar on the economic stimulus, one participant asked the question - if I have 10 workers and I placed 2 of them on no-pay leave (which was already arranged ahead), will it affect the grant for the 8 workers that are still being employed?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2809

Rebate on property tax

I notify my two tenants that I will be giving them a rebate of 3% of the rental for 2020. This is a small sum but it is all that I am getting from Heng SK's budget.

One of them replied - thank you. this is coffee money. I know him to be a good friend, so I know that he is not laughing at me.

Heng SK gave rebate of 30% of the property tax. As the property tax is 10% of the annual value, it is 3% of the annual value. As the rental is approximately the annual value, this is how I calculated the 3%.

I joined two webinars arranged by a chamber of commerce on the stimulus budgets.

One participant asked the question - how do I distribute the property tax rebate to my tenants? He must be asking a equation that is on the mind of several tens of thousand of owners of commercial properties.

It is really a small sum that the government is giving to the landlords. And they now have to figure out how to distribute it to their tenants. This will be required by law.

I am sure that many tenants will find it to be too small to be of any use. It will probably caused many misunderstanding between the landlords and the tenants.

At the very least, the government should give a rebate of 100% of the property tax for 2020. Even so, this would be less than one months of rental.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2808

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Are the three stimulus packages helpful to businesses?

2. What do you think about the circuit breaker measures?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Fast spread of covid-19

Wisdom of the Crowd: 62% of the respondents said that the increase in infections is caused by the rapid spreading of the disease now. 21% said that it is due to increased testing. 18% said that more people come forward to be tested.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1931

WOTC - How can a company cut expense during a downturn

Wisdom of the Crowd: 71% of the respondents prefer the company to ask the workers to take no pay leave and the govt to provide a loan for the loss of income, if the company has to reduce cost during a downturn. 26% prefer the company to retrench its unproductive workers.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1930

Unethical business practice

I want to share an example of unethical business ethics.

At an early date, I bought a temperature gun for $9. It worked well. I immediately placed an order for 3 more guns. The order was accepted.

Two weeks later, the supplier cancelled the order. They claimed - out of stock.

I looked for another supplier and placed an order for 3 pieces at a slightly higher price. The order was accepted.

The same outcome happened. Two weeks later, the supplier cancelled the order claiming - out of stock.

The same equipment are not being offered for 4 to 5 times of the previous price.

I suspect, in both cases, the suppliers found that they could sell their equipment at a higher price. So, the cancelled the order, after accepting it and collecting the money.

The website refunded the money, but it was an unethical business practice.

Why was there a sharp increase in infection since 24 March?

I asked my 100 year old crystal ball - where was there a sharp increase in the number of infections during the past two weeks, since 24 March?

Could it be due to the large number of students who returned home from the UK and the US? Among them, a large number are reported as "imported cases". Could these people be responsible for the increase in infections?

My crystal ball said - but these people were placed under quarantine in the luxury hotels. How could they have spread the virus, when they were under quarantine?

Why then is there a sharp increase?

This is the reply from the crystal ball. Do you believe it?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2805

Respond in a timely manner

We need to respond in a timely manner. We should not respond too late (i.e. behind the curve). However, we should also avoid responding prematurely, as it may cause panic and disruption.

There is a cost to responding too late. There is also a cost to responding too early.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2800

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is it safe for the public to re-use the same face mask for several days?
2. Should Singapore start a factory to make face masks immediately?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Compare Taiwan and Singapore's approach

Let me compare the different approaches adopted by Taiwan and Singapore.

a) Both form a high level committee to deal with the problem. Singapore has a ministerial task force. Taiwan has the Central Epidemic Command Center. Look at the qualification of the people in the two organizations.

b) Taiwan uses data base technology, artificial intelligence and access to digital data for contact tracing, in spite of privacy laws. Singapore records contract tracing details manually.

c) Taiwan encourages the use of face mask early. Singapore discouraged the use of face mask until recently.

d) Taiwan has a neighborhood warden system to enforce quarantine and deliver meals and assistance to those in need. Where are the residents committee in Singapore doing in this respect?

Read the details about Taiwan's approach here:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/19/taiwan-shows-its-mettle-in-coronavirus-crisis-while-the-who-is-mia/

Are the leaders in Taiwan doing a better job?

Give your vote here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2799

WOTC - Low spread of the corona virus in Singapore

Wisdom of the Crowd: 44% of the respondents said that the prompt and early action by the government was the main reason for the low spread of the corona virus in Singapore. 33% said that it was the warm weather.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1929

WOTC - Best approach towards the corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: The respondents voted the country with the best approach in dealing with the corona virus as follows - Taiwan (43%), China (32%), South Korea (14%), Singapore (11%), Hong Kong (0%).

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1928

The faulty crystal ball

Earlier, I made a prediction that the global stock markets would make a recovery on 9 April.

I said that I obtained the prediction from my 100 year old crystal ball. Now, it does appear that the crystal ball might be wrong.

I asked my crystal ball again - why did you make a wrong prediction?

Here is the answer:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2798

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What if the ventilators in your hospital are fully used?
2. Are medical products from China defective?
3. Do we have capable and dedicated ministers?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Naming of roads - Sunrise Estate

In many parts of Singapore, the roads are given names without proper logical structure.

I show below the map of the Sunrise Estate, off Yio Chu Kang Road. The roads are now named as

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2796

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What if the ventilators in your hospital are fully used?
2. Are medical products from China defective?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

Use scare resources fairly and effectively

Many hospitals around the world are facing this difficult decision. They ICU and ventilators are fully occupied. They have new patients who need ventilators. What should they do?

They have no choice but to turn away the new patients. Sorry, we do not have any bed for you.

In some hospitals, they have to take away the old patients to release the bed and ventilator to a younger patient, who has a better chance of survival. It is a very difficult decision.

Someone has to decide. If you are in charge, how do you decide?

Tough right? Here is my answer.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2795

Deaths in US from corona virus

The deaths in the US from the coronavirus is not alarming. Let me explain my thinking.

I saw a report in CNBC that 1 million people tested for coronavirus in US and more than 200,000 have tested positive. The people tested were hospital workers and patients.

This means that over 20% of the population is already infected with the corona virus. If we extrapolate it to the entire population of 320 million, more than 64 million were already exposed to the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2790

WOTC - Lockdown in Singapore

Wisdom of the Crowd: 52% of the respondents said that Singapore should implement a 14 day lockdown. 48% disagree.

Note - the government just decided to implement a one month lockdown.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1925

WOTC - Projected deaths from corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of the respondents said that the corona virus will result in less than 500,000 deaths. 40% think it will be higher.

Note: I consider a death toll of 500,000 to be not alarming, compared to 3 million people that die each year from pneumonia. Most of the 500,000 would come from the 3 million.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1924

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Is it necessary to close all workplaces for one month?
2. Is the government adopting the right approach in dealing with the virus?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

What proportion of the population is already infected?

The government has decided to implement a lockdown in Singapore. All non-essential workplaces have to close for one month.

I guess that they have no choice. The new local infections has increased to an alarming number (about 50 cases a day). There is widespread panic among the people.

There is a belief that a lockdown will stop the spread of the corona virus. Many countries or cities are already adopting this approach. It seemed to be safer and wiser to follow them.

We should take advantage of the lockdown period to gather a vital piece of information - what proportion of the population is already infected with the virus?

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2789

Quora: Mike Pompeo accused China and Iran of hiding information related to the spreading of Coronavirus. Do you think that is true?

Answered by Thomas Pauken II, Reporter at Freelance Entrepeneur (2014-present)

BEIJING: Apparently, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has forgotten to look into the mirror when accusing another sovereign government of lying.

On April 15, 2019, he attended a forum at Texas A&M University in Bryant College Station, TX and was boasting about telling lies.

“I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole,” Pompeo was quoted as saying. “It was like – we had entire training courses.”

It’s strange to see the top diplomat for the United States make such comments in public, although he loves to berate Beijing calling them very dishonest.

Yet his comments contradict US President Donald J. Trump who has praised China’s Central Government over how they have handled the COVID-19 outbreak thus far.

Pompeo is arguing that China has published lower numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases in the Chinese mainland for the past week, so he went ahead to assume Beijing has been under-reporting the numbers with malicious intent to harm the United States.

Besides, the WHO (World Health Organization) has closely monitored Beijing’s response to coronavirus while the agency’s director general, Dr. Tedros AdhanomGhebreyesus has also complimented China’s heroic efforts to respond to coronavirus.

The WHO is a neutral agency that does not play favorites with any country. Pompeo appears to be accusing the WHO of allegedly conspiring with Beijing to under-report confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.

The WHO would not gain any benefits from taking such unethical actions and they would lose their reputation for honesty and integrity if sovereign governments believe they are corrupt.

We should also take note the WHO receives much of its funding from the United Nations, sovereign governments and wealthy donors.

Washington provides a substantial amount of funding to the WHO and it’s not in their best interest to play silly games with the US federal government.

Pompeo could be feeling jealous that President Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence as Chairman of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. But it’s understandable why he was not appointed.

The majority of coronavirus cases had come from Wuhan, central China’s Hubei Province. President Trump understands that he should improve communication lines with Beijing.

China can play a crucial role to help Washington search for a new vaccine and to improve treatment methods for infected patients in the US. Pompeo’s constant criticisms against China would make him unqualified to join the Coronavirus Task Force.

We can read more about how China wishes to help the world to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Here’s an article from Xinhua. The link is here:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/09/c_138859758.htm

As reported by Xinhua:

“In the face of the challenges posed by the spread of the disease overseas, China will enhance international cooperation, noted the meeting, adding that implementing epidemic prevention measures at borders is conducive to the orderly and safe flow of people between countries.

Inbound travelers who are confirmed or suspected of being infected with the virus or are close contacts will be checked, treated and quarantined according to relevant rules, said the meeting, noting the particular importance for ports with high numbers of entries and exits such as Beijing to work meticulously on epidemic prevention.

China will also work with relevant countries to suspend or reduce the two-way flow of personnel such as students studying abroad. Guidance and assistance will be provided to Chinese citizens in other countries.”

Pompeo should learn more about the art of diplomacy. The COVID-19 outbreak could strike the US with a vengeance and Chinese Central government stands willing to lend them a helping hand.

Get ready to fund small businesses

This CNBC video showed the problem faced by America in introducing a business loan funding program. Watch video.

Some of the problems highlighted are:

a) Excessive demand leading to the website crashing
b) Complicated forms that need to be simplified
c) Coordination between the federal govt and its agency and the lending banks.

Singapore will have to introduce a similar program in the near future. It is best to get our platform ready.

Here are my suggestions to avoid a similar hiccup.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2785

Practical measures adopted in Turkey

I saw a video of the measures taken in Italy to provide hand sanitizers and sanitizing stations for the public to use at public locations. View video.

I was impressed with it. I like their approach where the government provides the facilities to help the public to combat the corona virus.

I contrast it with the approach adopted in Singapore where the government expect employers and businesses to implement social distancing, temperature recording and recording of contact tracing details.

These measures are not as effective as the sanitizing facilities provided by the Turkey government.

I am worried about the stop work order that is being issued by the ministry of manpower for workplaces that do not allow their workers to telecommute. MOM officials may not understand that these telecommuting measures may be difficult to monitor.

I expect the measures adopted in Turkey to be less disruptive to businesses and the workers. They are also likely to be more effective in combating the spread of the virus.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2784

Why do we need a complicated Medisave deduction form?

This is the Medisave deduction form. It is a complicated form that require a lot of details to be provided.

The CPF member has to sign this complicated form to authorize deduction from his Medisave account. This form has been used for several decades.

Let us cut out the unproductive work.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2780

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Why is the Spanish flu given this name when it started in Kansas, USA?

2. How should the government control food prices during the pandemic?

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Timing of general election

Wisdom of the Crowd: 94% of the respondents do not like the government to call a general election in the midst of the corona virus epidemic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1921

WOTC - Stop the spread of the virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 43% of the respondents said the best way to stop the spread of the virus is to ban travel inside and outside the country. 29% want to provide free testing. 18% want everybody to wear a face mask.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1920

Complicated criteria used for SIRS

Someone created a song - ask MP, why SIRS not for me?

I checked this acronym (you know, PAP likes to create acronym for every new scheme) and found that it is "self employed income relief scheme).

To qualify for SIRS, you have to meet many criteria. Sure, that is PAP's approach. Everything must be convoluted.

I read also that the Ministry of Manpower will consider appeal from people who don't quality for SIRS and face hardship.

Well - that is PAP's approach. Set up a convoluted scheme, allow appeal, must ask MP, etc.

What is an alternative approach?

I will ask people who need the assistance to get a loan, but they must pay back with interest, pegged at the rate of inflation. That's it.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Was it advisable for the govt to help Singapore Airlines

2. What are your views about the corona virus impact on America.

Vote in
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/vote.aspx

WOTC - Travel ban by Malaysia

Wisdom of the Crowd: 69% of the respondents said that it was necessary for Malaysia to impose a ban on international Travel

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1919

WOTC - Corona virus will be a long term problem

Wisdom of the Crowd: 59% of participants expect the corona virus to be a problem for a long time.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1918

Take the appropriate measures according to the circumstance

Most people think that the lockdown and social distancing is the best way to slow down the spread of the corona virus.

Sweden is more relaxed about it. They do not adopt these extreme measures.

Is Sweden right? Do they have to change their strategy? We will wait and see.

The lesson is - do not adopt extreme measures until they become really necessary. These measures cause other problems, which could be worse than the disease itself.

The UK was somewhat relaxed at first. When they saw the spread, the govt panicked and imposed a lockdown.

But they also took other measures, such as getting volunteers to help the elderly and increase added 4,000 beds in a temporary hospital to cope with the increase case load.

I expect the UK to relax its lockdown soon, when the other measures are in place. Let us see.

How serious is the pandemic?

The World Health Organization website reported 33,982 deaths out of 722,464 infected people, giving a mortality rate of 4.7%.

On its own, the deaths of 33,982 is not alarming. Each year, 3 million people die from pneumonia caused by all kinds of germs. Most of the deaths from the corona virus are related to pneumonia.

What the people and governments are worried about is that the deaths will increase many fold, maybe 100 or 1,000 times. If it is 1,000 times, we are looking at 33 million deaths.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2769

A loan is better than a handout

I prefer the government to give a soft loan to businesses and individuals to cope with the economic downturn, rather than give a cash handout.

Here are my reasons:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2768

Address the longer term challenges

I welcome the second stimulus package of $24 billion. It is larger than most people expect.

This package is helpful to businesses and households to tide over the immediate future.

I expect a significant part of it to be wasted and abused. I would have preferred the money to be used in a better way. However, I do not wish to quarrel over this point.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2767

Should the govt help businesses?

Dear Mr Tan,

I’ve read that some SME bosses are asking the government to do more. I’ve also read some people object to this request, saying that in good times when the company makes money, the bosses enjoy, but when problems come they ask the government. So the government should not help.

My reply is given here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2766

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Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is a good way to help people who suffered loss of income

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WOTC - Self driving buses

Wisdom of the Crowd: 59% of the respondents are in favor of using self driving buses with conductors.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1916

WOTC - Deaths from corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 84% of the respondents said that the corona virus will cost less than 1 million deaths globally. 16% think it will be more.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1917

Give a soft loan instead

During an economic downturn, it is difficult to decide on who should or should not get financial assistance from the government.

The government is reluctant to give money to people who can cope, so there have to draw a line somewhere to determine who are poor and need assistance, and who can do without assistance.

Wherever the line is drawn, there will be people on the margin that are left out. They will be unhappy.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2765

Social distancing in public transport

Dear Kin Lian

With the safe distance measure being put in place , not only staff from the shopping mall being activated to help out, but also police officer to assist in crowd control management like assist in people queuing or either taking their temperature but with precaution taken ?

Should MRT and Bus queuing also have the 1m social distance

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2764

How serious can the pandemic be?

According to statistics from the World Health Organization, there were 30,879 deaths out of 663,740 infections around the world as at 29 March 2020. This implied a mortality rate of 4.6%.

Some people calculated that is the entire global population of 7.8 billion people become infected, the total deaths would be 351 million. If half of the population became infected, 175 million people would die.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2763

WOTC - Where did the corona virus originate?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 37% of the respondents said that the corona virus was prevalent in the US before it was discovered in China. 32% said that it originated in Wuhan.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1914

WOTC - Best way to use Tap Card

Wisdom of the Crowd: 47% of the respondents said that it is best to use the transit card as the tap card. 41% prefered to use the mobile phone.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1915

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should schools be closed now to stop the spread of the corona virus?
2. What cause the big loss suffered by Singapore Airlines?


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Quora: Why didn't China setup medical tents?

Why didn't China set up medical tents instead of constructing the new hospitals for the Coronavirus? Even if the new hospitals were constructed quickly, the lag time early in the outbreak made the situation worse.

Answered by: Jean-Luc Liu, MSc Power Systems, Colleges and Universities (2022)

I actually asked a government official in Wuhan who works on repurposing public facilities into temporary hospitals the same question. He told me that while it is easy to set up tents, setting up sufficient waste processing capacity for the field hospital is much harder. If unprocessed waste from hospital goes into the Yangtze river by accident, all Chinese cities between Wuhan and Shanghai would have to be placed under quarantine. That is why the government rather set up temporary hospitals in the exhibition center (where 1000 patients have to share a bathroom) than planting tents in riverside parks.

Big loss due to speculative hedging practice

We cannot blame SIA for the loss caused by the ban on flights during the pandemic.

However, we should hold the management and board of SIA (and its parents Temasek Holdings) for the losses due to their speculative hedging practice. It is very bad.

Read my reason here:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2760

Massive loss caused by triple whammy

Singapore Airlines is suffering a catastrophic loss of $2.5 billion. This is the result of a triple whammy. See the details here.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2760

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is a good way to do contact tracing

2. Is the social distancing regulations necessary?

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WOTC - Stop the spread of the virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of the respondents said that the social responsibility of the citizen is responsible for stopping the spread of the virus. 30% said that it is the actions taken by the government.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1913

WOTC - Hold general election during a pandemic

Wisdom of the Crowd: 91% of the respondents said that it is unacceptable for the government to hold a general election in the midst of the corona virus pandemic.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1912

Wear a mask

Someone asked the question - why do I wear a mask now, when I said earlier that there is no need to wear a mask?

That person is obviously stupid!
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2756

Give useful comment

Here is a way to give useful comment to a view expressed by another person:
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2755

Lock down may not be the right strategy

It is now fashionable for governments to implement lock down to stop the spread of the corona virus. This requires people to stay at home for several weeks. This will be very costly to the country. Will it work?

If it works and the virus is eradicated, the economic cost may be worthwhile. But if it does not work, the price is too high.

There is no point in paying a high price to reduce the spread only to find that the virus is not totally eradicated and may return through a subsequent round of infection.

What is the alternative?
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2754

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Which method is best to reduce the spread of the corona virus?

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Three weeks to get a refund

I made a booking for massage service provided by the club to members.

The therapist resigned. I had a booking that was canceled. The club arranged to refund my booking fee. It took three weeks for them to write the refund cheque.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2753

WOTC: General election in Singapore

Wisdom of the Crowd: 46% of the respondents expect the general election in Singapore to be held by June 2020. 21% expect it to be held in the third quarter of the year.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1911

WOTC: Export of test kits for corona virus

Wisdom of the Crowd: 60% of the respondents said that China is already exporting the test kits for the corona virus in a large way.
https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1910

UK approach towards containment

I like the approach that is adopted in the UK to contain the corona virus.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2752

Wasted 1 hour to make a payment

I wasted one hour to make a payment to my employee for their salary for this month.
DBS has a ridiculous system under the online platform for business customers. It is called Ideal 3.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2749

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. What is the best way for a business to cut cost during an economic downturn?
2. What is the main reason for the increase in covid-19 cases?

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Quora: How come there is a sudden increase in COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases in the USA all of a sudden?

Clanton Sim, Ph.D Philosophy & Economics, University of California, Irvine (2019)

There’s no suddenness to this. Even at this late date, when S. Korea is doing up to 10,000 tests a day, and China is doing door-to-door swab tests, we, in the USA, have less than 75,000 test kits—with an additional 1.2 million test kits promised sometime next week. All this for a nation of 327.2 million people. My wife volunteers at an ER, and has witnessed hundreds of sick people, who wanted tests, being turned away because they did not meet the criteria. One man, who was Vietnamese, wanted his brother, who was visiting, to get tested. His brother was sick. He was turned away. This was two months ago. Now that test kits are slightly more available, all you need is a cough and an ok from your primary health care doctor to get tested.

There is no sudden surge. We only discover what we test for, and we have not tested but a handful of our population. They say we are low risk in the US. Based on what tests? Based only on the pittance of tests we have managed to give. We don’t know how far the contagion has spread, and that’s a fact.

Death of a young person from this virus

There is a report that a child under 18 has died from the coronavirus in California, Los Angeles County health officials announced Tuesday.

I expect the social media to be circulating this report as if it is dooms day.

The fact is that the death of young people from this virus is small, relative to the number of elderly people above 70 who have died. Maybe, the ratio is 1000 to 1.

Young people do die from many causes, so we do not need to be alarmed with a small number of deaths from the virus. We have to take it as an accident.

We only need to be alarmed when there is a large increase. I do not expect this to be the case.

So far, I have seen the government in many countries taking strong measures to stop the spread. I believe that many of these measures are over-reacting to the risk. The justification is - better be safe. OK, go ahead.

I expect that the governments will soon realize that the risk from the virus, while worse than a flu, does not justify the extreme measures that are being taken.

In a few weeks time, they will reduce the extreme measures.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2744

How South Korea tackle the corona virus epidemic

What South Korea did is remarkable. I hope Mr. Orange and his team learn from their experience.

They did contact tracing with existing electronic records, which are more effective than the wasteful manual recording of contract tracing details adopted under his Orange protocol.

And where are the 60 testing centers in Singapore (in proportion to the 600 testing centers in South Korea?

From New York Time:

How South Korea flattened the curve

South Korea reported its lowest number of cases since last month on Sunday — a remarkable turnaround from the several thousand cases that exploded there in late February and early March.

Its strategy was not the full lockdown that China employed, or even the widespread restrictions that the U.S. and Europe have implemented. Instead, it focused on swift, widespread testing and contact tracing, our Interpreter columnist writes.
In the week after its first reported case, South Korea moved rapidly, eventually opening 600 testing centers and keeping health workers safe by minimizing contact.

Once someone tested positive, officials meticulously traced their movements using security camera footage, credit card records, even GPS data from their cars and cellphones.

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Which country has a good political system in dealing with its challenges
2. Which country adopt a good approach to deal with the corona virus?
3. What cause the low spread of the corona virus in Singapore

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WOTC - Collapse of global stock market

Wisdom of the Crowd: 54% of the respondents said the spread of the corona virus to Europe and America caused the collapse of the global stock markets. 26% said that it is due to the collapse of talk on oil production cuts.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1907

WOTC - Stay at home

Wisdom of the Crowd: 67% of the respondents said it is better to stay at home or work from home.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1906

Use existing drugs to treat covid-19 patients

This article in the New York Times said that nearly 70 drugs and experimental compounds may be effective in treating the coronavirus, as reported by a team of researchers.
Some of the medications are already used to treat other diseases, and repurposing them to treat Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, may be faster than trying to invent a new antiviral from scratch, the scientists said.

I agree with this approach.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2743

Set up special medical facilities for Covid-19 patients

The ministry of health is arranging with private hospitals to take Covid-19 patients that are not critically ill. These patients have to be monitored for a few days and are discharged when they are tested to be negative for the virus.

I suggest that a separate approach be taken.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2742

Quora: How do foreign soldiers view Singaporean soldiers and the SAF in general?

Bryan Mak Dewei, 3SG(NS), Infantry Sergeant (Res.) at Singapore Armed Forces (2015-present)

I’ve had the pleasure of meeting foreign soldiers during my time with the SAF and after, in civilian world I have met a fairly sizeable amount of Australian soldiers who have worked with or have interacted with Singaporean forces. But the most meaningful responses I received was from people that are/were Australian soldiers which I happen to encounter a fair bit of in my leisure events.

Its a question I myself like to ask them, “did you work with the SAF before? What do you think of us?” I tell them to be honest but frankly I don’t need to, they are very blunt people.

Most of the answers have been very positive, they found SAF personnel to be professional and well trained (by their standards). They complimented the SAF on its professionalism and competence mostly, a common metric being the efficiency. I’ve heard some Australian soldiers comment on our training culture which one said was “very angry” and “intense” which I attribute to the tekkan culture of the SAF and the Israeli-like obsession with ‘toughness’; lots of yelling, scolding and angry commanders.

I personally have never been “looked down upon” by Australian soldiers when they found out I was in the SAF and knowing the personality of those I interact with, they don’t seem to be people who mince words. Even as “just a National Serviceman” I’ve even had interesting conversations with these former or current Australian soldiers on military related matters and I find myself with my NS experiences alone able to keep up with these professional soldiers. Outside of just Australian soldiers, when I swap stories with foreign soldiers, sometimes I get reactions like “you did all that?” from foreign soldiers to which I reply “you didn’t???”

Infact I’ve often remarked to them that they have a higher opinion of the SAF then we do of ourselves.

However, they were particularly critical of one element of the SAF. Every year, the Australian Army hosts the Australian Army Skill at Arms Meeting (AASAM) and part of the competition involves inviting foreign militaries to compete, Singapore included. Several former long-serving Australian soldiers I met were very critical of many of the military delegations from Asia sent to AASAM to compete, including Singapore. As with many Asian countries sent for the competition, they thought poorly of the SAF’s Shooting Contingent as they felt the SAF, like many militaries were bending rules and not participating in the spirit of the competition by using non-standard equipment and only sending soldiers who were essentially competitive shooters whose job was solely dedicated to competition shooting, instead of selecting soldiers from line units. I find myself in agreement with the Australian soldiers, having been in the SAF’s shooting team briefly and witnessing the practices first hand. The competition is supposed to be a skill-at-arms competition akin to the Australian Army’s Duke of Gloucester Cup or the British Army’s Cambrian Patrol, not a shooting sports event.

For what its worth, I did visit an Australian Army reserve infantry unit’s open house once, and did ‘size them up’ a little by assessing their competence when interacting with the men from the unit and judging their drills during their demonstrations. I was honestly quite surprised to see how little difference there really was in terms of competence between the SAF and the ADF. A NSman or NSF could easily match and even outdo many of them!

Trace Together App

I have download the app.
i wish to give the following feedback to the MOH and GovTech.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2741

WOTC - Did HK police acted appropriately?

Wisdom of the Crowd: 74% of the respondents said that the Hong Kong police acted appropriately in dealing with the protesters.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1904

WOTC - Will PAP get more votes due to the epidemic

Wisdom of the Crowd: 55% of the respondents said that the PAP will get more vote for handling the corona virus well.

https://tklcloud.com/Crowd2/chart.aspx?ID=1905

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. Should Singapore impose a 14 day lock down now?
2. If the PAP hold an early election, how do you react

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Use cruise ships as temporary hospitals

During the current covid-19 epidemic, cruise ships have stopped their operations. Their customers stop joining cruises because of the fear of infection from other sick patients.

The government can charter these cruise ships to be used as temporary hospitals for the treatment of the infected patients.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2736

Dealing with a large increase in Covid-19 infections

There is a widespread fear in many countries that the increase in the number of people with the covid-19 infections will overwhelm the hospitals.

This possible outcome can be managed. This is how it can be done.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2735

Network of underground walkways

I discussed with my friend the concept of a network of underground walkways to connect all districts to the nearby transport hub or town center. This allowed passengers to walk a long distance in an air con tunnel and not worry about crossing the roads or walking in the rain and sun.

My friend is a retired pilot and had traveled around the world for over three decades.

He said that my concept is already seen in Osaka, Japan. There is a network of tunnels leading the the MRT stations. There are shops along the tunnels.

In my concept, the tunnels are mainly for walking. There will be some shops, but not many. I do not want it to be an underground mall.

To build the underground walkways, the cost can be quite modest. We can use modern tunnelling technology to bring down the cost considerably.

Walking is good for exercise and good health. We need to encourage people to walk long distance. An air con underground tunnel can be quite attractive.

https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2734

Wisdom of the Crowd - New Issues

1. When do you expect the global stock markets to recover?
2. How many people will be killed by the corona virus in 2020

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Forecast - the global stock market will recover on 9 April

I posted a forecast - the global stock market will recover on 9 April 2020. It attracted a lot of interest. Several readers asked me to explain my forecast.

Here is my explanation.
https://tklcloud.com/Feedback/feedback2.aspx?id=2733