WOTC - Donate to meet legal expenses of Aljunied MPs

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Will you support the appeal to meet the legal expenses of the MPs from Aljunied?

Here are the responses: (70 Votes)

53 % - Yes. I will support generously.
34 % - Yes. I will support moderately.
10 % - No, I have no money.
3 % - No. I will not support.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=963

Market competition in electricity

I cannot understand the decision of the govt to open up the electricity market for competition.

They probably thinks that market competition can bring down prices.

Market competition can add to the total cost for the following reasons:

a) The operators have to engage marketing staff and advertise to get customers and to take customers away from competitors.

b) There is higher cost moving customers to a new operator, e.g. set up the account, arrange the banking payments, etc.

c) Some operators may offer attractive promotions but this can only last for a short period and has to be recovered through other means, such as hidden charges.

Is there a better way to bring down prices?

Certainly.

If the govt provider makes its costs transparent, it will help to reduce the excessive profits and wastefulness.

An independent auditor will also play an important role. The independent auditor should NOT be a private firm appointed by the utility company.

It should preferably be the auditor general's office, which is overseen by parliament. The AGO has demonstrated the value that can be provided by a truly independent audit.

We should get away from the mistaken notion that market competition can bring down the cost of utilities. It is better for the utility providers to be state owned with independent audit of their costs and transparency.

Tan Kin Lian

WOTC - Express and feeder services

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should we change our bus system to the feeder and express buses?

Here are the responses: (68 Votes)

37 % - The feeder and express services will cut down travel time.
32 % - The feeder and express services will be easier to understand.
21 % - I prefer to keep to the current system.
10 % - I do not like to change from one service to another.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=962

WOTC - Reduce class size

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should the class size be reduced to 25 students?

Here are the responses: (68 Votes)

56 % - It allows the teacher to give more attention to the students.
28 % - We have to follow the best practice in more advanced countries.
13 % - Parents do not have to spend too much money on private tuition.
3 % - This will cost too much for the govt.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=961

Searching for Black Society Restaurant at Vivocity

Vivocity is a large mall. I had to find the Black Society Restaurant for a dinner event. It is located at #02-156.

It was quite difficult to locate this restaurant. The footprint of the mall is very big. There was no floor plan to show where the unit is located.

I finally found it after walking the entire floor of level 2.

My only guide was to look at the unit numbers displayed on each shop. I hoped that the unit numbers are arranged sequentially. Fortunately, it was. But I cannot assume that it would be.

Many of the shop do not show the unit number. Some show them at the non standard locations. This adds to the difficulty.

The malls should follow the best practice adopted by the hotels. From the lift lobby, there will be signs indicating the direction to take for each range of unit numbers.

I wonder why the malls do not follow this good practice?

It is also useful to have "landmarks" in the mall. For example, the main pillars can have different colors. It will be easy to give this direction - go to the red pillar and move 5 shops to its right.

Many large malls have several entrances. In most cases, the entrances are not named. I have visited the large malls in Jakarta and they are named - West Entrance, East Entrance, etc. It is easy for shoppers to arrange to meet people at the right entrance.

The bad signs and inconsiderate attitude is quite common in Singapore. It is like our national culture.

We need to have planners exercise common sense and think about their customers.

Tan Kin Lian

Looking for NUSS Guild House in Suntec City

I arranged to meet a friend for lunch at NUSS Guild house at level 2, tower 5 of Suntec City.

Suntec City is very big. The signs are not helpful. But I finally managed to reach tower 5, with some difficulty.

I reached the escalator to level 2. I decided to look at the directory before the escalator to see if I was at the right place.

To my surprise, NUSS Guild House was not listed. I checked again. No listing.

I wanted to look for someone for help. Then I saw NUSS Guild written in big words on a big pillar.

Why can't the management show NUSS Guild House on the directory AND on the pillar? Most people would expect to see it on the directory. Some may have noticed the pillar, but others (like me) might have missed it.

I am baffled at this logic, which sadly is quite common in Singapore.

The Future Economy of Indonesia

I attended a talk by Pak Sandiaga S Uno, the vice presidential candidate contesting on the same ticket as Pak Prabowo Sandiaga.

The title of his talk was "The Future Economy of Indonesia".

Pak Santiaga spent several years working in Singapore. He was a permanent resident. His lost his PR status when the company that he worked for closed its operation in Singapore.

He has fond memories of Singapore.

He wanted to introduce reforms on tax and labor regulations in Indonesia if he was elected. He is in favor of private public partnership for infrastructure projects, so as to reduce the burden on govt finances.

He quoted an interesting example of the disagreement between the agriculture and the trade ministries under the current govt of Jokowi. The agriculture ministry said that there was sufficient production of rice, but the trade ministry said that it was insufficient and more rice had to be imported to keep the price low.

Pak Santiaga said that the solution was to get the correct data for decision making. This will apply to all sectors of govt decision making. "

I find his views to be refreshing.

I wish him all the best.

Tan Kin Lian

Future of shared bike

I expect the bike sharing operators to cease their business within a year or two. They are not likely to get enough revenue to sustain their operating cost. The govt is not helping to make the business viable by charging them a fee for each bike.

Most passengers will not pay $1 or more for a ride, when they can get a feeder bus at a much lower cost, due to the integrated fare structure.

It is useful for shared bikes to be provided by the govt as part of an integrated system. The govt should pay for the bike and also provide the parking space.

The user should pay a modest fare, say $0.20 per ride of up to 1/2 hour. Better, this can be provided free.

The govt can tender to a private company to manage the operations, in return for a monthly fee per bicycle. This will include retrieving the bicycles, repairing them and keeping them from being stolen.

Users have to pay a fine for not returning the shared bike to the approved locations or for causing the bike to be missing. It can be tracked by technology.

The number of bikes needed for each district can be determined by analyzing the data of usage.

Tan Kin Lian

Give back to society

Minister Chan CS urge the elite to give back to society.

Article

The "urging" is just another pretense.

It is better to get the elite to pay more income tax, and abolish GST.  And, the minister can still urge the elite to give back more to society voluntarily.

Some people say that higher income tax will chase the elites away to another country. It will not happen. Most of the elites earn their salary and profits by operating in Singapore. If they move away, they will lose a big source of their income.

What about the multi-millionaires from overseas who are attracted to come to live in Singapore? They will still come because their overseas income are exempt from income tax anyway. They are attractive by other reasons to live in Singapore, and not low income tax.

Let us get away from the urging and the false reasons. Let us address the inequality and reduce the burden of high cost of living from the working people.

Tan Kin Lian

Something for you to do

FEEDBACK
Here are the most recent feedback given to govt agencies and commercial organizations and on govt policies.

Read the feedback and vote (agree, disagree) on each feedback. Play an active part as a citizen. Give your view.

http://tklcloud.com/Feedback/latest.aspx

FINANCIAL PLANNING
Do not fall into the trap and lock up your savings in a life insurance policy that gives you a poor return over many years in the future. If you want to quit, you will lose a lot of money. So, you are stuck.

Here are some tips on how to avoid this costly mistake.
https://tankinlian.com/video.aspx

BOOK OFFERS
3 financial books $15 (discount of 58%)
https://tankinlian.com/cart.aspx?ID=51

6 puzzle books $18 (discount of 59%)
https://tankinlian.com/cart.aspx?ID=50

WISDOM OF THE CROWD
Click on these links to see how ordinary people voted on various issues concerning life in Singapore.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/result.aspx

Click here to give your votes on the current issues:
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/active_issue.aspx

You will win a prize for participating.

PERFORMANCE OF AGENCIES AND MINISTERS
Click here to find out how the ordinary people assess the performance of our govt agencies and ministers.

Click on the link to submit your vote and win a prize.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/ChartJS.aspx?Section=Minister

Improve efficiency and reduce cost of operation of public transport

Public transport fares will increase by 6 cents in December. This will represent an increase of 4% for a typical fare of $1.50. It is a large increase.

One reason put forward is the increase in capacity. This means more trains and buses are put into operations.

It is time for the Land Transport Authority to study the data and publish the average occupancy rate for each service and time period of the day.

Are we running too many buses and trains that are relatively empty. Are there services that are too packed?

Can the frequency be changed to improve the efficiency?

This website shows an example of how the data can be analyzed. I am using simulated data to generate the report. The real data can be obtained from the database of the Land Transport Authority.

http://tklcloud.com/Bus/show_occup.aspx

I developed this website to show to the LTA and also visited their office. However, they do not seem to be interested.

I suspect that we are building too many MRT lines and that some of the lines will not be adequately used. Each MRT line cost several tens of billions dollars. Are we spending too much? Is the public being asked to pay for the costly operations through fare increases?

I support the development of a more complete network of trains, but I urge that the spending should be better controlled. We should not be spending too much money to build the lines.

There is another area for optimization. Currently, we operate 350 bus services connecting various parts of Singapore.

This network of services is quite complicated. Some commuters will know how to use a mobile app to take advantage of the services. But many commuters do not know how this can be done.

I believe that the bus services can be improved by reorganizing them to have express services that run on the expressways and connect one town to another. Feeder services can bring the commuters within the town and the nearby areas.

Under this structure, we only need 40 to 60 express services and maybe 100 to 150 feeder services. This new structure will reduce the travel time by 30% (my estimate) and also makes it easier to increase the occupancy of the buses. It will result in lower cost of operations.

We can improve our public transport system and reduce the cost of operations.

Tan Kin Lian

Price increase and vouchers

My comment: Increase price then give vouchers. This seem to be the expected mode of operation. It is better to keep cost low, so that everyone can afford it.

It is costly and wasteful to set up the system and manpower to distribute the vouchers.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Public transport fare hike: S$9 million in vouchers to support 300,000 needy households

The lower-income households will get Public Transport Vouchers worth S$30 each, which can be used to purchase or top up fare cards or buy monthly concession passes, said the Ministry of Transport and People’s Association. This is the largest such exercise to date since 2010, and needy households can apply for the vouchers at community centres and clubs from Nov 12 this year to Oct 31 next year.

Read this article

Getting SingPass Mobile to work

A helpful staff from the CorpPass help desk called me. He helped me to set up my mobile phone to receive the CorpPass notification.

It was very difficult. He had to guide me for more than ten minutes. It seemed that different phone had different configurations, so it was difficult to get the right setting for the notification to pop up.

We managed to get the setting to work.

Still the popup does not appear. I have to log into the app to see the notification.

I imagine they will have to guide many users on this complicated setting.

I told the staff that there is a simpler way. They can get the app to generate a OTP (which replaces the need to send a SMS). The user will be happy to get the OTP and enter it into the CorpPass website.

My solution would have probably cost less than 10% of the cost that they had incurred to set up the complicated notification system.

And they will have to incur horrendous cost in providing the support to guide several hundred thousand users.

Tan Kin Lian

Minimum wage or progressive wage?

I wish to share my views on the debate between minimum wage, adopted in most countries, and the progressive wage system, favored by the govt in Singapore.

According to the International Labour Organisation, more than 170 countries in the world have a minimum wage, or 92 per cent of its 186 member states.

If the progressive wage system is better, why do other countries not adopt it?

The progressive wage system was introduced in Singapore in 2012. It covers the cleaning, security and landscaping industries.

While it has made some progress, it does not help much to raise the overall level of wages and the inequality in wages.

My view is that it will take a long time for the progressive wage system to have an impact. We have a habit of finding convoluted approaches to solve our problems. Many people are confused with these approaches.

What's the problem with implementing a minimum wage. There is a fear that it can cause small employers to reduce the workers that they employ.

Why not, for a start, implement a minimum wage in the public sector and for large companies? We can exclude small businesses initially.

The public sector should set an example and pay an adequate wage to all its workers. It is egregious for the National Library Board to pay a wage of $5.50 an hour for its part time workers.

The same observation can be made about the wages for workers in Changi Airport. If the work is outsourced to sub-contractors by the public sector or the large companies, the minimum wage should also apply to the contracted workers.

It is better for the public sector to stop the practice of outsourcing of their work to reduce the cost of labor.

We can find a way to get small businesses to implement the minimum wage. The govt can give the a subsidy to cover the wages of a limited number of workers in each small business.

The proponents of the progressive wage system pointed out that the wages will be higher for workers with more skills.

We can leave it to the employer to pay higher wages to better skilled workers. There is no need to give this excuse to avoid the minimum wage.

The high inequality in Singapore has to be dealt with. We have to implement a more effective system to raise the wages of low income workers. Most countries decided that the minimum wage system is the way to go. They are not stupid.

Tan Kin Lian

WOTC - Allowance for each child

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

How much should be the allowance for each child?

Here are the responses: (69 Votes)

49 % - $500 a month until the child reaches age 16, limited to 3 children per family
22 % - $800 a month until the child reaches age 12, limited to 3 children per family.
19 % - $300 a month until the child reaches age 16, limited to 3 children per family.
10 % - The baby bonus package is better.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=960

WOTC - Provide an allowance for each child

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should the govt provide an adequate allowance for each child?

Here are the responses: (71 Votes)

56 % - It will help to increase our birth rate.
21 % - It will encourage some mothers to stay at home and raise a few children.
13 % - It will be too costly. 
10 % - It will encourage families to have many children.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=959

Difficult to cross a road

I was walking along Orchard Road towards Orchard Hotel. At the Paterson Road junction, the crossing was blocked. The sign indicated to use the underpass at Ion. it was not a straight forward underpass. I had to go down 2 levels and passed through dozens of shops. I almost got lost.
I was most annoyed at how inconsiderate were the road planners. They are not concerned about the difficulty and confusion given to ordinary people. They only wanted to give more business to the shops.

Shared bike operators likely to close shop

I expect some of the shared bike operators to close shop within the next six months and the fleet size to drop further. If this happens, it will be another example of the inexperience of our regulators. Their regulations make business not sustainable.

----------------------------------------------
FROM TODAY PAPER

Shared bike fleet slashed by over 50 per cent to 40,500, as Ofo cuts numbers from Nov 1

The shared bicycle population in Singapore will be cut by more than half next month, dipping from 100,000 in September to 40,500 as operators downsize their fleets to meet a Nov 1 deadline imposed by the Land Transport Authority (LTA). Ofo, which had originally applied for and was granted a licence for 25,000 bicycles, subsequently requested a reduction to a maximum fleet of 10,000 due to difficulties meeting financial obligations under the licensing scheme for 25,000 bikes, the LTA said on Monday.

Read this article

Responsible competition

I support Grab's approach towards the arrival of Go-Jek. We should avoid unhealthy and wasteful competition.

It should actually be the duty of the regulator, i.e. the Land Transport Authority, to set the parameters for a competitive market.

It should not be uncontrolled competition where the party with more money use their power to kill off a weaker competitor.

There are unsustainable practices that should be disallowed.

I wish all the best to Grab and Go-Jek.

---------------------------------------------

FROM TODAY PAPER

Banking on good service

Grab looks to avoid a price war with ride-hailing rival Go-Jek as it focuses on safe, reliable services

Grab plans to take a cautious approach and push to further improve its services, rather than drive up subsidies, as competition with Go-Jek intensifies in its home market and across South-east Asia, company president Ming Maa said in an interview at the China Conference organised by the South China Morning Post in Kuala Lumpur earlier this month. "We do not believe that winning customer heartshare and mindshare is driven by subsidies," he said. "It's driven by providing them good service and a good product."

Read this article

Reduce the congestion at the checkpoints

I give my views about the third link to Johor Bahru.

It is good to build a third link, but it is costly and will take many years to be ready.

We should act now to improve the traffic flow in the existing two links.

The clearance on the Singapore side is too slow. Often, it takes a longer time to clear the Singapore side than the Johor side. Do not blame the traffic. Both sides have to deal with the same traffic.

Last week, I returned to Singapore through the second link. It took less than 5 minutes to clear the Johor side by car. It took 45 minutes on the Singapore side.

I found that 2 booths were not manned. Only 4 were manned at that section.

if all 6 booths were manned, the clearance would have been much faster.

It is deplorable that the Singapore side was not able to get all the booths manned, leading to a long wait for the travelers.

It is inefficiency and wasteful.

For bus travelers, both authorities can talk to each other and locate the clearance in the same building at the point of departure.

The traveler from Singapore can clear through the Singapore checkpoint and proceed to clear through the Malaysian checkpoint at the Woodlands side.

A similar arrangement can be made at the Johor side. The traveller from Johore can clear through the Malaysian checkpoint and then the Singapore checkpoint in the same building.

This is the arrangement at the train checkpoint for the KTM shuttle. It works well. It is considerate to the people.

We can also increase the number of train departures for the KTM shuttle. Currently, there are about 15 departures a day. It can be increased to 60 departures. It is possible to have a train depart every 15 minutes.

The actual journey takes 5 minutes. As there is one track, it should be possible to have the train goes up and down in 10 minutes and allow 5 minutes for boarding and alighting.

Earlier this year, the Malaysian side had asked the Singapore side to allow more departures. Why is the Singapore side not giving an answer after so many months?

There is unfairness in the fares being charged. The traveler pays $5 to leave Singapore and RM 5 to leave Johore. The fare from Singapore can be reduced to $2.

We can have the third link in a few years time. Meanwhile, there is much that can be done to improve the efficiency of the existing two links.

I urge the Singapore govt to consider the welfare of the people who have to travel regularly. Most of them are workers who come to work in Singapore.


Work with Malaysia to increase the train service and to reduce the time for clearing both checkpoints. Reduce the congestion on the two links.


Tan Kin Lian

WOTC - A strong Singapore dollar

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Do you like a high Singapore dollar?

Here are the responses: (70 Votes)

36 % - No. It increases our cost of doing business and reduces jobs.
34 % - No. It allows foreigners to make a large profit on investing in properties and take the profit out of Singapore.
17 % - Yes. It gives better spending power when we travel to other countries.
13 % - Yes. It reduces the cost of imports.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=958

WOTC - Taxation system

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Which taxation system do you prefer?

Here are the responses: (75 Votes)

79 % - Progressive income tax - high earners pay a higher rate of tax.
12 % - Smaller govt, less tax and less social benefits.
8 % - Tax on big ticket items, such as car and houses.
1 % - GST

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=957

Performance of ministers and agencies

I wish to ask you to vote for the performance of the agencies and ministers by clicking this link.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/login2.aspx?ReturnURL=mperf
This will take you less than 5 minutes.

If you voted recently, please re-submit your votes, as the data table has been reorganized.

After you submit your vote, you can download a prize - Continue my Life Insurance Policy?

Thank you.

Order safely through online platforms

Some people have bad experience buying things online.

They ordered some products that were not delivered.

Some of the sellers used online platforms to scam the buyers. They did not intend to deliver the products. Some recent cases involve highly priced concert tickets.

Not all of these cases are scammed. Sometimes, there was failure in the delivery, e.g. delivered to the wrong address.

The honest sellers will provide a contact and will respond to complaints.

How can you tell between the honest and the dishonest sellers?

A safe way is to use a well established platform like Amazon, Ali Baba or Lazada.

My experience with these platforms have been satisfactory. I have ordered several dozen products and they were all delivered. If the product was out of stock, I received a refund.

Most of these platforms actually had many independent sellers. How do the platforms ensure that all the sellers delivered their products.

They adopt a good method. They control the transfer of the funds until after the delivery is completed and confirmed.

They require their sellers to despatch their products through the approved delivery providers.

All the deliveries are tracked through the tracking system provided by the platforms.

To avoid being scammed, you should buy through the established platforms.

What about products that cannot be bought through the established platforms, such as concert tickets?

Try to establish contact to the seller by email or WhatsApp first. If the seller replies, he is likely to be an honest seller.

Pay through PayPal. They provide insurance against non-delivery or complaints. You can get a refund.

We are moving to the online world. Get used to it, and enjoy its benefits.

Tan Kin Lian

Act now to avoid costly mistakes

I have often received requests from consumers who bought a life insurance policy and later had second doubts.

They asked me - is the policy good?

I asked them to send the benefit illustration to me.

My usual conclusion is - it gives a poor return, but it is too late to correct the mistake.

Too late?

Yes. If you stop the policy now, you would have lost a large part of your savings.

Is there a way to avoid this mistake?

Yes. Here is a simple step, and it is free.

Watch the videos on financial planning contained in this page.

These videos are prepared especially for young people, but older people will also benefit from them.

https://tankinlian.com/video.aspx

WOTC - Free trade agreements

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Are free trade agreements good for Singapore?

Here are the responses: (72 Votes)

64 % - Some of the FTAs are bad for Singapore, such as the CECA - as it allows the inflow of foreign workers to compete for jobs with locals.
29 % - The FTAs generally benefit the businesses but do not help the workers.
7 % - They are generally good for Singapore, as it promotes trade and brings economic growth to Singapore.
0 % - Many workers have benefited from the FTAs through good paying jobs.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=956

WOTC - Was NEA negligent?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Has the NEA been negligent over the social enterprise hawker centers?

Here are the responses: (76 Votes)

58 % - The social enterprises abused the system to make profits for certain parties.
24 % - The NEA failed to carry out its duty properly.
11 % - The blame goes to the minister for the environment.
8 % - They are operating under the guidelines set by the govt.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=955

What are the key issues in the Aljunied town council law suit?

I was confused with the issues of the Aljunied town council case as reported in the newspapers.

My friend followed the issues closely and summarised them as follows.

a) Aljunied town council appointed FMSS for one year without calling a tender due to urgency.
b) They called a tender on the second year but only FMSS applied. The other managing agents declined to tender.
c) The $33 million is the total managing agent fees for 3 years.

I calculate the monthly fee to be about $1 million, or $12 a unit assuming there are 80,000 units. If this is 20% higher than average, the overcharge could be $6 million. This is just my calculation.

Should the Aljunied office bearers be made accountable for spending more than expected?

Some calculations are based on my assumptions. I will be correcting them when I get the facts.

Another issue. The Aljunied MPs are paying the legal fees personally? Who are paying the legal fees for the plaintiff? If the residents are paying out of the town council funds, should they be asked to approve the appointment of the legal firm and their fees?

Hold a referendum on section 377A

Desmond Lee said, "Our children have to decide what to do with section 377A".

https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/our-children-have-to-decide-what-to-do-about-377a-desmond-lee

I consider his response to be:

a) Kicking the can down the road
b) Avoiding responsibility.

What can the minister do?

He can hold a referendum. Allow the citizen to vote using SingPass. This referendum is optional. SingPass ensures that each person can vote only once.

I expect that only the people with strong views on this issue will cast their vote. Those who do not vote are probably happy to go with the majority.

I also expect that certain groups, who are strongly for or against the repeal of section 377A will organize their followers to cast their vote. This will be an excellent exercise in direct democracy.

It will be a good example of a govt that listen to the people.

How to keep the vote secret, when the voter has to register with their SingPass. I know a way.

My method will keep the vote secret, and will also ensure integrity of the votes. I do not need to use blockchain.

What is this way? The minister or Gov Tech can contact me for the answer.

So, minister Lee. Take the initiative. You have a chance to prove that you can do something that has a great impact on the future of this country.

Tan Kin Lian

Why did the Singapore Stock Market Fall?

Received email from Motley Fool, Singapore ...

Dear Foolish reader,

No one saw it coming. Without any warning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1,300 points in two successive days.

Nobody quite knows why.

It rebounded. Then it fell again. Again no one can adequately explain why.

Some say it was because 10-year Treasury yields unexpectedly jumped above 3.2%, which unnerved the market. The yields have come back down. But still the markets have fallen.

Some say it was because of unhelpful White House comments about the Fed’s interest-rate policy. What’s new?

Excuses, excuses

Some say it was because of fears over an escalation of the Sino-US trade spat. Some say it was because of worries over possible contagion from the ongoing emerging-market currency slump.

Some say it was because of concerns that China’s economy could slow down more than expected. Growth was slowing anyway!

Some say it was because of Brexit. Some say it was because Italy could be kicked out of the Eurozone. Really?

Some say it was because US shares are overvalued. That doesn’t explain why Singapore shares have fallen, though.

Some say it was because oil prices climbed above $80 a barrel. Some say investors are doing a bit of tactical rotation. Some say it is because they are doing a bit of strategic allocation.

Do you get the feeling that “some people” are just making it up as they go along?

It’s very simple

The simple fact is that markets dropped because there were more sellers than buyers of shares. There is nothing more to it than that.

When there are more buyers than sellers in any market, then prices can rise. When the opposite happens - as we have just witnessed - prices can fall. The stock market is no different to any other market.

Take durians as an example. Earlier this year when durians were literally falling off the trees, some vendors in Geylang were even giving away the fruit for nothing. But towards the end of the season, when supplies grew scarce, prices skyrocketed.

No prizes for rightly guessing that I ate lots of durians when prices were at rock-bottom and avoided them when prices were high.

Enough about durians. Back to the stock market.

Unfortunately, many investors don’t know themselves why they have unloaded their shares. They dumped them probably because other people were selling theirs. So tragic.

FOMO

Sadly, there is no shortage of badly-informed people in the market. They buy when others are buying. They sell when others are selling. They know the price of everything but the value of nothing.

They can be the main cause of volatility in the market because they are driven by the fear of missing out, or FOMO. They are driven by emotions.

They don’t want to miss out by not owning shares when stock markets are rising. So, they buy regardless. They also don’t want to get caught out when stock markets are falling because they happen to be holding shares at the time.

If only they knew what a wonderful place the stock market can be to create wealth for the long term.

Money allocation

But we do. For us the stock market is a great allocation centre where money is moved from the uninformed to the informed.

Warren Buffett said: “Don’t gamble but watch for unusual circumstances. Excellent investment opportunities come about when superior businesses experience a one-time event that depresses their stock price in relation to their intrinsic values.”

We are in the midst of one of those unusual events. But our job is not to forecast whether the market will be higher or lower tomorrow. That is called speculation....

.... Our job is to forecast the yield on the assets we want to buy over the lifetime of those assets. That is called investing.

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'Til next time ...

Inpact of recent events on general election

Here is a simulation of the result of the next general election taking into account the recent events, i.e. failure of new hawker center and court case against the Aljunied MPs.

http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx?id=1616

You can create your own simulation here
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx

Elitism and excellence

Minister Chan Chun Sing said that we should be anti-elitism and not anti-excellence. This phrase sounds impressive. But what does it mean? Is it just another way of ignoring the problem of large inequality?

What can be done to correct the grotesque inequality?

The answer is obvious - introduce a minimum wage of $1,500 per month or $10 an hour.

It has been argued that some employers cannot afford this wage. I agree. But what about the other employers?

But can the National Library Board or Changi Airport afford it? 

Why is the National Library Board paying only $5.50 am hour for their part time assistants?

I don't know what Changi Airport pays, but it probably is much lower than $10 an hour. I read a news report that one elderly worker, 65 years old, was so angry with his job that he changed the destination labels on many luggage mischievously and got them sent to the wrong destination.

I know that Changi Airport made a profit of $849 million last year. Can they afford to give better pay to their workers?

Can they also pay more to their check-in staff, so that more locals will take up the jobs? It is rather sad to see many of these jobs being done by foreigners.

If the minister wants to achieve less inequality, words will not do much. He should get the govt to introduce a minimum wage of $10 an hour or $1,500 a month for all jobs in the public sector.

What about the private sector?

All big and profitable companies can afford the minimum wage. It is not that much, compared to many other countries with lower cost of living.

What about the small employers? The govt can provide a wage subsidy of 30% of the wages, capped at $1,000 a month for each employer.

Some small employers will abuse this subsidy, but they can be handled. The govt just need to pay attention and deal with the abuses. It is not that difficult.

Elitism is a bad word for the current practice of this govt. the govt can remove this bad image by paying a minimum wage in the public sector and help small businesses to provide this minimum wage.

When workers find dignity in their job, and the dignity starts with an adequate wage, they will not worry too much about elitism.







Tan Kin Lian

New factors for GE simulation

I have added several new factors for predicting the results of the next general election.

These factors are:

a) court case against the Aljunied MPs.
b) Failure of new hawker centers.

The previous factors are still available for your selection.

Click here to view the results of some recent simulations.
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const2.aspx

Click here to choose your own factors for the simulation.
http://tklcloud.com/Election/const.aspx

Swing against PAP at next general election

Please vote on the impact that each factor will have on the swing against the PAP at the next general election.

Your vote will help to improve the prediction of the result.

You will get a prize when you have submitted your votes.

Thank you.

http://tklcloud.com/Election/swing2.aspx

WOTC - COI to look into social enterprise hawker centers

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should a COI look into the social enterprise running the hawker centers?

Here are the responses: (68 Votes)

38 % - We need to know if the NEA had carried out its duty properly.
31 % - We need an independent COI to study the issues.
24 % - We need to know if there is any fraud and cheating.
7 % - This is not necessary. Leave it to NEA to sort out.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=954

WOTC - Social enterprise hawker centers

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Are the social enterprise acting properly in running the new hawker centers?

Here are the responses: (72 Votes)

68 % - The entire operation is a sham.
24 % - They are overcharging for their services.
8 % - They are passing excessive profits to their contractors.
0 % - They are running the hawker center well.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=953

Buy a new HDB flat?

Hello Mr Tan,
I am currently staying in a 38-yr old HDB flat and is fully paid. I am 44 years old. As you might know, the price of an old HDB will continue to fall. What would you advise?

a) Should I continue to stay in this HDB?
b) Buy a new HDB?

My reply here:
https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx…

AIA 25 year participating endowment

A policyholder bought a 25 year participating endowment from AIA. She asked for my view.

Here is my reply

SingPass Mobile is confusing

The SingPass Mobile app is confusing. They put in explanation on many pages.

I do not know which are the pages that are for transacting and which are for explaining. I do not know how to get out of the explaining pages to the transacting pages.

They should just provide a clean app for transacting. If they need to explain, they can do outside of the app. They can put it in the website and provide a link to the app.

Anyway, this is not my view alone. I saw the rating of this app to be 3.0. Most good apps have a rating above 4.0.

Tan Kin Lian

Performance of ministers

I have now received 28 votes on the performance of ministers, compared to 23 votes earlier. So, 5 additional people voted.

Thank you. But I need more support. Please send 5 minutes to give your vote. Let us move to 100 votes.

BTW, you will get a prize (Planning for your Retirement) when you submit your votes.

Go to this webpate and click on the link - Submit Your Vote.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/ChartJS.aspx?Section=Minister

"Big ears" and positive attitude

The general manager of the Grassroots Club called to inform me that they have implemented a simplified system for booking of massage service.

I told him that the new system works well.

We discussed about how the massage service can be expanded. The male masseur is trained in Taiwan and had excellent skills. He operates from home during the weekdays and provide the service to Grassroots Club members on weekends at $8 a session.

I suggested that the club provide space for him to operate every day to serve both members and the public.

I said that the fair value for the service is $30 a session. Members can be give a small discount, say $25.

This will make the service more sustainable for the masseur and will be a good service to members of TGC.

He agreed to consider my suggestion.

I find him to be pro-active and willing to listen to members. With his "big ears" and positive attitude, he will perform well in any organization.

I wish him well.

Tan Kin Lian

Example of an impressive civil service

I wrote to the Malaysian minister of transport through his ministry's website giving suggestions about their KTM train service.

His ministry referred the matter to KTM. I received an acknowledgement from KTM within a few days. It promised a detailed reply soon.

The detailed reply came. It was headed "Without Prejudice". I checked for the meaning of this phrase. It meant that the communication cannot be used in a court of law. The KTM officer does not want to the committed to the reply. That is fair.

The officer really made an attempt to address the issues that I raised. It was helpful. I replied to her that "I am satisfied with her reply".

She replied immediately to thank me, and addressed me as "sir".

I have a positive impression of the Malaysian civil service. They really serve the public with respect.

Our Singapore civil service must emulate their practice. Our ministers should set the example.

Tan Kin Lian

Voting on similar topics

Sometimes, I created the same topic for voting in the Wisdom of the Crowd after a gap of several weeks.

This is the reason.

a) I might have forgotten that I had already created a similar topic.
b) The choices in the new topic are usually worded differently.
c) I expect the answers to the later topic to be quite close to the earlier topic. It helps to validate the results.

Wisdom of the Crowd

Some people said that that they find it difficult to vote on some topics as they agree with more than one choice. They prefer the choices could be mutually exclusive.

I told them to choose any of the choice that they like most. It does not mean that they dislike the other choices.

For example, I may give two reasons why the people like a govt policy and two reasons why they dislike it.

It does not really matter which of the two reasons (like, dislike) that they choose. The total for both scores will be taken as a "like".

This approach allows the strength of the two choices to be measured.

Try it now.
https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/home.aspx

Present big expenditures for approval by Parliament

The govt spends billions of dollars on large projects without disclosing the budget to the public.

Someone said that any MP can raise a question in parliament.

This is the current practice. It is a bad practice.

I expect the reply to be - we do not know the actual cost as it is subject to tender.

The MP can ask ask for the budget but it will be "begging for the answer". The govt can provide only scanty information.

A better approach is for all large ticket items to be presented to Parliament for approval.

This allows the MPs, including the opposite MPs, to study the paper in detail and ask incisive questions. Even if the MPs are too busy, the public can also carry out the detailed analysis.

A friend told me that this is the practice in Hong Kong. I believe that it is also practiced in most democratic countries.

The questioning in Parliament will lead to other alternatives being considered, Some of the alternatives may be less costly and more effective.

For example, the specification for the projects the project may be set too high. It will certainly lead to very high cost. By changing the specification, and still maintain an acceptable standard of safety and quality, the cost can be reduced considerably.

I quote a recent example. The finance minister of Malaysia asked for the specification for several transport projects to be changed. He was able to reduce the budget by a few billion dollars.

I am sure that this kind of cost saving opportunities are available for our projects.

In many countries, corrupt politicians are able to get big brides from suppliers for big infrastructure projects and military purchases.

The corruption is facilitated because these transactions are kept secret, for national security or other reasons. It is an excuse and an avenue for corrupt practices to occur.

We should make it a practice for all big expenditure to be discussed and approved in Parliament.

Tan Kin Lian

WOTC - Develop Sentosa and Brani

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Do you support the development of Sentosa and Brani?

Here are the responses: (62 Votes)

53 % - We should control excessive spending on infrastructure and building.
27 % - The budget for the development should be presented for discussion and approval in Parliament.
15 % - This is necessary for the continuing development of Singapore.
5 % - It will bring more tourists into Singapore.

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=952

WOTC - Should MPs run town councils?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd:

Should elected MPs be made to run town councils?

Here are the responses: (65 Votes)

46 % - The running of town council services should be left to the govt agency.
34 % - The MPs should be focused on other matters, and not waste time on town council issues.
11 % - It is a good way to make them directly responsible to their voters.
9 % - It is good provided that they are not hampered in their tasks

See the pie chart at: 
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=951

Avoid being overcharged by a plumber

Dear Mr. Tan

Please share this information in your website.

Tell your readers to be careful about using plumbers that advertised in the internet with a Google Ad.

I encountered a plumber recently to handle an urgent leaking problem. They replace the water heater and charge me a large sum. I was not aware about the market price at that time. As the water was leaking badly, I agreed to the charge.

Later, I learned that I was overcharged by more than $300.

What happened next?

https://fisca.sg/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=605&Name=Avoid-being-overcharged-by-a-plumber&View=A

Invest in Temasek Bonds to earn 2.7% for 5 years?

Hi Tan,
Whats your opinion on Temasek bonds and also about it being oversubscribed ?

Are the locals really buying this bond ?

Reply
Many Singaporeans have too much cash. They don't know how to invest. So, the 2.7% is attractive to them.

They can top up their CPF special account, including family members, and get 4% (plus a bonus of 1% on a portion), but they don't trust the CPF. They like the freedom and option to take out their money.

I still think it is better to keep money in CPF and lock it up for a lifetime.

Temasek bonds should be quite safe, but CPF is better.

Another option is to invest in the STI ETF. As the stock market has corrected, it should give an attractive return over the long term.

If you invest in STI ETF, look for the long term. Do not worry if it falls 30% in the near future. It may or may not happen. But over the long term, you should get more than 2.7%.

Collect and refund tray deposits?

The hawker center management want to impose a deposit for each tray. They think that customers may steal the tray?

Really? Why would the customer want to steal the tray? They can also steal the bowls, spoon and chopsticks. Right?

Stealing is a crime. It is not worth it.

I find it ridiculous to collect $0.20 or $1 as deposit for each tray and to refund the money. The cost of employing people or technology to handle the refund is not worth the trouble.

I wonder - what happen to logic and common sense? Is Singapore breeding idiots?

Unauthorised access to "confidential" information

Unauthorized access to data seems to be quite common. It is quite difficult to control.

Cathay Pacific is the latest victim. SingHealth was an earlier victim. This will not be the last. I expect more to follow.

The authorized staff is allowed to access the data to serve the customer. There could be hundreds or thousands of staff who have the right of access.

It may be impossible to ensure that their login credentials are kept secret. It could be hacked. It could also be sold for a fee.

I personally think that the confidential information is not so confidential or important. I don't mind someone knows my birthday. They can send me a gift for my birthday, OK?

I don't mind that they know my bank account No. They see it on the cheque that I write to them.

I am more worried that they know my credit card No. But when I give my credit card to a restaurant, they have a receipt with my credit card No, right? So, it is unavoidable.

Of course, I will check my credit card statement to make sure that all the charges are genuine. I like the banks to introduce a stronger process to handle credit card charges, such as entering a secret PIN. In the meantime, I accept the risk.

I do not mind that other people know my email address and mobile No. I make them available anyway. It is not a secret information.

If I get spam messages, I delete them. I also block the sender. That is enough for me.

There is no need to be paranoid about the access to "confidential" information. Frankly, it is not that confidential.

Tan Kin Lian

Give me a simple webpage

Many websites are badly designed.The designer made a common mistake. They put too much information in the page. They think that they are being helpful. They forget that too much information can be confusing.

They like to put in "help" information in that page. They forget that the user can be easily confused with the "help" information and the actual information that is need for them to handle their transaction.

Most websites of our government agencies have this pitfall. Just take a look at the sign in page for SingPass or IRAS, CPF or ACRA. It is difficult to differentiate between the necessary fields and the "help" information. Actually the "help" information becomes unhelpful.

Take a look at the Google search page. It contains only the search bar. It has since been expanded to include the icons for the pages that were accessed recently, but these icons are not distracting.

If I were to design a webpage, I would follow Google. I keep only the essential information on that page. I will provide a link to the non-essential information, such as "Get help" or "Watch a video". But I would not show these non-essential information on the same page.

The bad design does not apply to government websites only. Many commercial websites also have the same shortcomings. Even some popular apps have this shortcoming.

I realize that I might be an exception - and that most people prefer to have a detailed webpage. But I like the Google approach.

Give me a simple neat webpage anytime. You can have links to the other information.

Tan Kin Lian

An alternative to CorpPass

I wish to share my views about CorpPass.

I find CorpPass to be poorly implemented. It is a project under Gov Tech and is under the Smart Nation.

Prior to CorpPass, I was able to sign in with SingPass to carry out transactions with govt agencies. I am registered as the authorized person for my own company and for an association where I am the president.

Life was relatively easy, after I got used to the system. They introduced 2FA authentication with SMS. It was unnecessary, but I accepted it.

I could use SingPass for my personal business and for non-personal business.

Later, they introduced CorpPass. I have to register a separate CorpPass ID for each entity. So, I have two CorpPass ID. But if I am involved with more organizations, I need additional IDs. It is difficult to handle so many IDs. I have to record them somewhere.

The CorpPass ID requires me to have the business ID (also called the UEN), a user ID and a password. It also requires 2FA authentication that is linked to a personal mobile phone.

Someone justified the use of a separate CorpPass so that it can be de-linked from the person, i.e allow other staff to do the work when the main person is not available.

If this is the case, why link the 2FA to a personal mobile phone? I cannot imagine the authorized person leaving the mobile phone to a staff to handle the transactions.

It is also a bad idea to allow a third party to access your own CorpPass ID. After a while, you do not know who handled the transaction on your behalf.

The risk of fraud becomes much bigger with this process.

We should revert to the use of SingPass and get rid of CorpPass completely. There is no use for this additional feature. It is complicated and unnecessary.

We still need a way for a person to appoint another person to handle transactions on his behalf. This can be done by appointing another person as a delegate.

For example, I am the director of my company. I can appoint my staff, using his SingPass to be my delegate for handling transactions for that company.

That person can act on my authority. However, the transaction is identified to that delegate. I can trace what the delegate has done on my behalf.

Using this delegate method, each person still use his own SingPass. He is allowed to appoint his delegate to handle transactions for a corporation.

There is still time for Gov Tech to rectify the shortcomings of their CorpPass system. They can use this delegate approach.

I hope that GovTech have big ears and will act on this feedback. I wish them all the best.

Tan Kin Lian

KTM Train Service

I received this reply from KTM to my suggestion sent to the Minister for Transport, Malaysia. I am satisfied with this reply.

I wish our government gives similar attention to the suggestions from the public.

Dear Mr Tan Kin Lian,
(Without Prejudice)

First and foremost we would like to thank you on your trustworthy to KTM Berhad and the time you have taken in bringing this issue to our attention. We clearly understand that the efficient service is essential in today’s fast-paced world, especially for our valued guests such as your good self.

For your information, currently Klang Valley Double Track (KVDT) work project is still in progress. The purpose is to provide rail-based public transport facilities to the public from Padang Besar to Johor Bahru in 2020. The government had projected RM15.9 billion for the provision of infrastructure on this project in order to achieve the objectives;

i) Upgrading the rail-based transport infrastructure to meet the demand of passenger and freight transport;

ii) Reduce road congestion by introducing an efficient and modern railway system;

iii) Reduce the travel time and increase to increase the capacity of the track is also added trains.

In order to meet the demands of various parties, there are other factors to consider such as the volume of daily passengers and operational needs. KTMB also need to organize maintenance work on each train are used for safety and comfort purposes. Hence KTMB apologizes for not being able to add train services for now.

Meanwhile the current ticket fare/rate using by KTMB has been approved by the authority parties including the Ministry. Nevertheless, KTMB also offered concession rate to children, senior citizen, government pensioner, disabled people (JKMM), Police/Army and KTMB i-Card Student – subject to Terms & Conditions.

Please be rest assured that your suggestion to improve KTMB website has been forwarded to our Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) Department for their concern. At the mean time we would like to share that currently the name of the station is sorted by state along with a route map purposely to help passengers to plan their journey. Whereas, narrowing the search time is actually to facilitate passenger in selecting train service accurately.

While this is by no means an excuse for such consequence to you, we will continuously improve to minimize the passenger inconvenience. Your endless support is highly appreciated to ensure our continuous improvement in providing a better public transport in the area.

Thank you for your trust and support towards our rail service.

Yours faithfully,
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Fulfillment & Solutions
KTMB Customer Service.

Confused with mobile SingPass

I logged into the IRAS website to submit my GST returns. It requires me to login with my corporate ID and password.

I have to authenticate my login with a 2FA. It automatically recognized that I had signed in for the mobile SingPass with my personal NRIC.

It asked me to authenticate with my mobile SingPass.

I followed the instruction but it did not work.

I have to select another tab to authenticate my Corp Pass using the SMS. It worked as before.

Why does Gov Tech continue to make things confusing and difficult. We are really in a mess.

I know that it will be sorted out eventually, but can our implementation be made smoother?

Tan Kin Lian

Performance rating of ministers

Do you agree with the performance rating of the ministers as shown in this webpage?

https://wisdomofthecrowd.sg/ChartJS.aspx?Section=Minister

The rating is based on just a small number of scores. I invite you to vote.

Click on "Submit Your Vote" and give your rating. You will receive a prize - Planning for your Retirement when you have submitted the vote.

This should take you only 5 minutes.

Vote now. Thank you for your support.

Dealing with exceptional cases

A former teacher told me about the difficulty that she faced in dealing with a naughty student in the class who refused to listen.

It disrupted her mood and affected her ability to teach the other students.

I gave her my view on this matter.

In all jobs, there will be the exceptions that are difficult to handle. It could be a teacher dealing with a difficult student. It could also be a customer service officer dealing with a demanding and difficult customer.

We need an effective way of dealing with exceptions.

In each school, there will be a discipline master that handles difficult students. The teacher can just ask the discipline master to deal with the difficult student. She can focus on teaching the other students.

In the customer service situation, the officer can ask the supervisor to take care of the customer. It is called "escalation".

I have adopted the escalation approach. It is simple and works effectively.

The problem faced by most workers is that the SOP (standard operating procedure) usually do not provide for escalation. It forces the front line worker (i.e teacher or customer service officer) to deal with the exceptions. This approach does not work. The front line worker should deal with the normal cases.

It is the job of the supervisors or specialists to deal with exceptions.

The former teacher also told me about the difficulty of dealing with demanding parents.  I told her the same approach. The teacher can pass the difficult parents to be dealt by the vice principal. They are trained to handle this task.

When I was running a large insurance company as the CEO, I was at the top of the escalation chain. It works well. It is easy for me to handle the very difficult cases.

When the customer reaches me, the customer is already tired of dealing with three levels below me. They become quite reasonable, when it reached my level.

I recommend this approach of dealing with problems.

Tan Kin Lian